£160 gold charge – best option?

Upgrade seems to be a good option if you can rapidly hit the £4k spend requirement (though didn’t realise the upgrade has reduced from 40k to 20k).
When you upgrade you’ll get the (vast majority of the) £160 back.

If you can hit the spend within 2-3 months, say, you will get the 20k points + 2 x £150 dining credit (this year and next), 2 x £50 Harvey Nicks, for perhaps £120-£150 or so, which seems decent value – and then you could downgrade after.

If you’re unlikely to hit the spend perhaps a downgrade is the best option (after trying to get a retention offer)

You’ll get a pro-data refund on the fee if you cancel or change card product.

Option 1: read the gold retention thread, sounds like people are being offered 20k points. If not offered, say you will think about it and hang up https://www.headforpoints.com/forums/topic/amex-gold-retention-offers/page/3/

Option 2: if you can get option 1, then points wise options 1 and 2 are the same (option 1 is without a spending target to hit). The question becomes if you want to pay for the dining credit and Harvey nicks credit etc. If you happen to be travelling the insurance and lounge access and foreign dining credit come into play too. Also if you do it now and hold the card into the new year, you will get all these credits to use in Dec and again in Jan.

Option 3: If you have another player AND don’t mind the credit score hit. I would get referred and apply for the ARCC – the free card that earns MR points, the MR account should automatically link, then cancel your gold card. Earning the referring bonus (especially if another player has the plat card and get 12-24k MR points referral) would be better than just downgrading (I am not actually sure which card they can downgrade you to these days).