Nutmeg Avios

Should the collapsing £ make me re-assess my points valuations?

On Wednesday I ran this article discussing what value I got from my miles and points in 2016.

One thing I didn’t consider was the substantial fall in the value of the £ over the last few months.  The $ is now 25% below what I considered the ‘norm’ of $1.60 over the last few years.  The Euro is off by 17% if you assume a recent ‘norm’ of €1.35.

Having just paid £8.92 for a cappuccino here in Dubai (the Dirham is pegged to the US$), I thought it was worth having a look at this topic in more detail.

How may the currency collapse have impacted your points collecting?

It is easier to look at hotel points rather than airline miles because the dynamics are more straightforward.

A few things can be stated as fact:

Hotels priced in $, Euro or indeed any other overseas currency (the Pound has overtaken the Argentinian Peso to be the worst performing global currency this year) are now more expensive to a £ earner than they were

Because the major hotel companies operate in $ or € (Accor), there is no pressure to revalue reward pricing

Because the UK is a small part of the global travel market, fewer UK tourist trips are unlikely to cause any fall in overseas hotel pricing

Your hotel points are therefore more valuable than they were as long as you redeem outside the UK because you are getting a more expensive room for the same number of points


These leads to other observations:

Hotel credit cards are now more attractive than they were compared to cashback credit cards since the value of the points has probably increased by 20%-25% (unless you only redeem hotel points in the UK)


If you earn the bulk of your hotel points via UK hotel stays, you won’t notice any benefit when travelling.  This is because the points you earn are based on the $ equivalent of your room bill.  Points may be worth more but you are receiving fewer of them with each stay.

If you earn the bulk of your hotel points via UK hotel stays, you are now worse off if you only redeem them for UK hotel stays.  This is because you are earning fewer points per £ spent but the cost of UK hotel redemptions is unchanged.

What about airline miles?

The impact on frequent flyer miles is less clear cut.  The number of Avios or other miles you earn is NOT based directly on what you paid for the ticket.

You won’t be earning fewer Avios for your flights, even though you will be earning fewer hotel points for your stays.

If the price of cash airline tickets from the UK continues to fall due to weakening travel demand (although incoming tourism may pick up the slack) then your points are worth less in comparison to the cash cost.  Airline economics are far more complicated than hotel economics though – you have the impact of fuel ($ priced but cheaper than historical averages at present) and the cost of the loans or leases on the aircraft (usually $ based but interest rates are also at historical lows).

The easiest conclusion to draw is that the fall in Sterling has increased the value of your hotel points.  It may make you want to reconsider whether you should prioritise them over your airline miles, which have not changed in value and will be worth less if cash ticket prices from the UK fall.

(Want to earn more hotel points?  Click here to see our complete list of promotions from the major hotel chains or use the ‘Hotel Promos’ link in the menu bar at the top of the page.)

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  1. Well I wouldn’t say the value of my hotel points has *increased *, rather their value has stayed the same while the value of £ in my bank accounts has dropped. I can still get the same amounts of hotel nights as I could 6 months ago, and I can’t exactly sell hotel points and get £ back.

    The US dollars in my bank may have increased in £ terms but I won’t realise this gain unless I exchange them, which I’m not going to do – I will spend them in USD-linked countries where they will generally get me the same amounts of goods they did in 2015.

    • RIccati says:

      You are still better off than those who walked into Brexit with their eyes closed.

      I have repeatedly posted in these comments about 25% loss in purchasing power of sterling. Had quite a bit of ridiculing.

      • The same people who voted leave can enjoy spending an extra 25% on their fry ups in Marbella. Mindless folk.

      • Well the merits of leaving or remaining can be debated elsewhere, but the people who are suffering a 25% loss of foreign purchasing power are merely those who didn’t expect leave to win, or who didn’t act on their prediction.

        Likewise, continuing to hold my US dollars is a proxy bet on Hiliary. A Trump win would be a bit of respite for the GBP…

        • I second your comment.

          The pros & cons of staying in a overbearing Union, controlled by Walloon’s has departed from Gate 2.

        • I agree there were steps to be made to try and cover your money against the voting.

          People who still get paid in gbp or have business will still have less spending power now and there is little they could have done before the vote.

          To think the 2 year notice hasn’t even been given yet!

        • the_real_a says:

          In my opinion the failure of the economics models (and why i don’t agree fully with your point) is that they fail to model substitution – thus Rob, I’m sure after being bitten by the £9 coffee, will now look for alternatives. What typically happens is that alternatives are the same or below the cost of the original choice. Your man from marbella might prefer his breakfast in Scarborough next time, choose own brand digestives rather macvities or from a macro perspective find his employer has “near shored” the supply chain

        • RIccati says:

          In the extreme application of this approach people prefer to eat sand because it is cheaper than flour.

        • RIccati says:

          P.S. The point is to improve the quality of life, not to look for the cheaper substitutes to satisfy the basic needs.

          However subjective quality of life is, the majority would prefer a holiday in Marbella over tea at Scarborough.

        • The last hotel I stayed in before this week was the Premier Inn in Scarborough …..

        • RIccati says:

          — the people who are suffering a 25% loss of foreign purchasing power are merely those who didn’t expect leave to win

          This is not true. Only a tiny fraction of people can/knows about USD “current accounts” with HSBC/Barclays/Citibank. Where would they store their USD, under the mattress?

          Neither USD is a perfect hedge, it is exposed to number of other factors.

          I would rather prefer a stable, robust currency than the need to hedge the political moves.

      • James67 says:

        Even worse if you take into account the currency markets heding on Brexit long before the vote actually happened.

        • the_real_a says:

          It was lovely if you had placed a bet in the right direction 🙂

        • the real harry says:

          a few people woke up early enough to get the Sainsburys USD exchange rate I posted 🙂

      • Not from me – just be glad you weren’t posting on the Daily Mail then you’d receive some ridiculing for anything vaguely sensible/pro-Remain !

      • the real harry says:

        ISTR the reaction was more about suggesting parity between GBP & EUR? Still some way off that

  2. O/T – Rob, the website appears to be displaying timestamps in BST. (Posted at 06:31 🙂 )


    • Oh yeah …. need to fix that.

      Currently having a sub £5 coffee in the Mall so they do still exist …

      • Which one emirates or Dubai?
        Costa and Caffè Nero in the Dubai Mall, probably a Starbucks as well but don’t pay any notice to Starbucks.

  3. Beverly says:

    The £8 coffee in Dubai is nothing…… we recently paid £11 for a cappuccino in Osaka!

    • £11 for cappuccino in Osaka?
      Consider yourself lucky then – the average annual income in Japan is only around £1500 per year more than the UK

    • the_real_a says:

      Am i the only person who travels with a cafetiere? 🙂

  4. I voted LEAVE and I’m more than happy to pay an extra 25% in order for the majorly increased prospects of my country over the next 5 – 15 years. We don’t all just plan in holiday years.

    • Isodrac says:

      Likewise here. Thought more about the benefit to the country rather than the pathetic value of points. Not everyone is in a London job earning big bucks and insulated from EU decisions. Screw the price of your coffee, you’re clearly minted anyway, so try thinking of people who aren’t as fortunate as yourself for once.

      • This is a points and travel blog, hence the focus on “pathetic points”, and a discussion about events in the world that have had a material effect on their value.

        Perhaps head over to the Daily Mail for “journalism” more in line with your expectations if you don’t like it. No one (nope, not even the EU ) forces you to read these articles.

        • Mr(s) Entitled says:

          And while you are reading the Daily Mail you should see the much trailed HfP ‘article’ on Wednesday. If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em?

        • sprout7 says:

          Touche! 🙂

        • You have no control over these things as you know! Best to co-operate in my experience.

          I do not chase publicity because it brings in lots of people who know absolutely nothing and clog up the site (and my inbox). People who come via Google will by default already have some knowledge.

          That said, if someone is already writing an Avios feature and wants to include us then it is daft to say No.

      • My daughter worked plenty of long shifts at Tesco to help fund her year at studying abroad. She also voted Remain, her wages are now worth 25% less when she spends them in South Carolina. Thanks to some useful advise on here I sent most of my contributions to her US godparents just before Brexit.
        Only time will tell if 48% were wrong and Brexit is going to be fantastic…
        Meanwhile time to decide on a Virgin black or white application today to replace my BMI card.

      • “Screw the price of your coffee” that’s a bit harsh. It’s also a dig at Rob too. Had a bad weekend, have we ?

      • “Not everyone is in a London job earning big bucks and insulated from EU decisions.”

        Am curious as to what EU decisions affected you negatively, as you imply. Other than freedom of movement i.e. immigration, what decisions made at the EU level actually negatively affected your life? Genuine question, not trying to be awkward or trolling. Am curious as to the reasons why some people voted to leave.

        • RussellH says:

          I have often asked myself the same thing. When I had my own business there was only one significant government rerstriction on what I could do, and that came from the UK government (the ATOL regulations).

          I would love to have received €1 for every European business partner who wanted me to sell their own flight inclusive packages. No one could get their head around the fact that the UK has different financial protection laws for flight inclusive packages vis-a-vis other modes of travel.

        • This is well worth a watch when asking which law it is that’s actually causing the problem –

        • No reply so far…doubt I will get one. Ultimately I don’t think – other than freedom of movement – there are many specific things Leave voters could quote that the EU has done to negatively affect their lives. It was more a decision that they don’t like the general idea of another body having a say in the UK’s affairs and that they don’t like uncontrolled immigration. Hopefully things will work out.

      • Dumba**, it’s the less fortunate (allegedly like yourself) who will feel that 17%-25% GBP devaluation most acutely. How much longer do you think are retailers going to absorb price increases on the products they sell? Apple raised their prices by a cool 20% last week, and they are the definition of a retailer with a padded profit margin (~40%). Expect Tesco to do something similar on imported staples soon enough.

        The London population, who by the way pay the taxes that support a large portion of the rest of the UK, are educated and mobile. I can just as easily do what I do out of HK or Singapore or NY.

      • What a stupid comment…. People in London earning big bucks are relatively unaffected, it’s the poor who face increases in food prices for the first time in years etc. who will bear the brunt of this.

        I’m just glad I get to leave this cess pit!

      • Vijay Odedra says:

        Why post on a forum about points if you view it all as ‘pathetic’? Surely it’s more pathetic to actually spend your time posting…

    • Almost everything will go up, not only holiday related expenses. Even products / services which are 100% domestically produced with 100% local resources will be more expensive, the higher demand for such items WILL drive the price up. This is not altruism

      • TGLoyalty says:

        Plus many of the raw materials rates are linked to the USD

      • Not many things produced whole lay in the UK any more. Best/worst thing about an internaltional community.

    • “We don’t all just plan in holiday years.”

      If you think that, then you’re on the wrong site! :p

    • the_real_a says:

      Substitution, substitution, substitution…

    • “I voted LEAVE and I’m more than happy to pay an extra 25% in order for the majorly increased prospects of my country over the next 5 – 15 years”
      If such prospects existed, the currency would be up 20%, not down 20% 😉

      More to the point of the article: Eurostar (100% French owned now, the UK sold its share) redemptions are now more expensive, and Eurostar tickets are now more expensive in GBP also.

  5. Why do people not realise that all costs will go up, simple economics, cost of inputs increases so overall price will have to increase to take this into account. The only thing that will become cheaper are holidays here for people coming to the UK.
    Anyway why are you on a site about points if you don’t care how much the value of a point is worth….
    Brexit costs us all money. If you value the benefit more than the cost then that is fair enough to you personally but don’t think that people don’t have a right to be angry that they are forced to pay a massive cost for your decision.

    • Absolutely. I’m still waiting to hear about these much vaunted benefits. All major costs so far. Of course the Leave camp also never bothered defining what they actually meant so we’re at high risk of leaving the Single Market and being left on WTO tariffs for years. That magical £350m weekly NHS funding doesn’t look like it’ll be appearing anytime soon either…

      • But after Nicola Sturgeon has worked her magic we shall have part of the country in the EU and part outside (or outwith) so we shall have the best of both worlds.
        Or Scotland will secede saving us even more money.

        • Yes, getting rid of Jocko land, then hopefully the Irish, perhaps Wales and then the other uneconomic parts of England and the South and South East can prosper. We may keep the South West for second homes and nostalgic holidaying.

        • Scotland neither wants to leave the UK, nor realistically can they stay in the EU without the rest of the UK

        • Scotland leaving the UK will not guarantee it membership of the EU. It would have to leave and re-apply as an independent country, an application that Spain has repeatedly indicated it would veto. That was made clear by the EU during indyref1 and re-affirmed since the brexit vote.
          Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP are using brexit as an opportunity to whip up anti-UK feelings for their own political ambition of separation, which is not in the benefit of Scotland or the rest of the UK. It is interesting that they were effectively supporting leaving the EU during indyref1 and now suddenly they are the champions of it!

        • The SNP consistently supported staying IN the EU during indyref. Its a real pity referendums don’t have to use the facts.

      • the_real_a says:

        The currency devalued by 25% the WTO tariffs are typically 10-12% – so even in your worst case scenario we have a 10% advantage. There will be some inflation and price rises the other way of course (fuel being the major one) but most can and will be offset by the substitution effect.

        • TGLoyalty says:

          sorry don’t understand what advantage we have?

          We will have a 25% devaluation of the currency plus after leaving a common market possibly 10-12% of tariffs plus any tariffs we don’t currently pay as members of the common market

        • That’s incredibly oversimplistic – you’re assuming no change in trade when WTO tariffs are in place and no longer part of the single market – other countries may well just purchase elsewhere rather than from the UK!

        • the_real_a says:

          The suggestion i make is that the value added bits to goods and services done in Britain (exports) are now 20% cheaper that they were before brexit. If you add a tariff of 12% we are still 8-10% cheaper than before brexit. So as an exporter I have now become substantially more competitive to the world market place. True, the cost of pan european “widgets” has has increased that i need for my products, but in 5 years British small/medium companies in the supply chain will diversify to provide this need.

          Secondly foreign multinationals invested in Britian have budgets domicled in USD or EUR so departmental spend in British divisions just got 20% less expensive compared the the US or Europe. Where would you place your next project?

          Thirdly – we have to get out of our heads that countries/governments trade. They do not. Individuals and commercial organizations do the trade. They are by definition non-emotional and will simply invest where the numbers suggest it best.

  6. FlyingChris says:

    Got a big vacation to SE Asia coming up in summer 2017. Thankfully the majority of flights & hotels were booked with points (thanks HfP!). Some others are priced on flexible rates in $. For anyone with a better FX crystal ball – should I think about biting the bullet and locking in a good advance purchase/prepaid sale rate? (assuming they charge the card immediately). Would usually wait until closer to the time but everything I’ve read suggests the Pound has further to slide against the dollar in the next 12 months. Anyone’s guess though.

    • James67 says:

      For seAsia I suggest you look at the issues in a very different way. The choice of great independent hotels, guesthouses, condos/serviced apartments etc is immense, and often offer better quality at substantial savings on the typical mid-high chains. Therefore, if you do have the free cash you should do some reseach and consider cancelling your points redemptions and saving the points for properties in more expensive locations elsewhere in the world where your points are potentially much more valuable.

      • FlyingChris says:

        Point redemptions I’m looking at Conrad Koh Samui (via free night certificates and a stash of HHonors – topped up the 100% bonus) & Conrad/IC options in Hong Kong – i.e. where maximum value can be extracted. Cash everywhere else currently. I’m sure there’s a good (cheaper) argument to go independent, but on a busy whistle-stop tour of 4/5ish locations in 3 weeks – lounge access/upgrades/free breakfast is just one less thing to worry about. Anyone stayed at the PH Siem Reap? While $150/night is eye-watering for Cambodia – must be one of the cheapest PH’s around and the reviews/location looked good.

        • Genghis says:

          I highly recommend the Conrad in HK. We stayed there earlier this month. Got a suite upgrade. Staff were simply outstanding.

        • James67 says:

          Ok I see. You will not then get any better value out of your points than that regardless of where you go. Conrad Samui is most of the time the most expensive hotel in Hilton portfolio I believe. Personally though I’d still stay independent in Thailand and pass on Samui.

        • the real harry says:

          agree on that – not been there for some 10 years (going with 2 little blondies aged 1 & 3 makes you EXTREMELY popular! 🙂 ) but Thailand offers 4 & 5* hotels for cash for such low rates that you probs want to consider whether it’s worth using points at all

          and obvs the 3* and lower hotels can still be absolutely excellent – Thailand does friendliness, food & hospitality so much better than any other country

    • No sign of the pound stabilising, question is, when we officially announce/start Brexit what will happen? Expect it to keep dropping and be very volatile based on that days news headlines on the negotiations.

      If looking at paying cash have a look on hotels own website for package deals, some offer really good savings (free airport pickups etc).

      • James67 says:

        There is also the problem of the Fed raising interest rates which seems inevitable, and may be couple with a further cut in our own. I’m wondering what will happen witn the brexiteers when the sh** hits the fan in the NHS when the falling £ filters down to the purchase of drugs and the many other products priced in $.

        Just saw your comment on HI Glenmarie, made me smile becsuse I had a similar experience in HI Silom of all places a decade ago. I could tell they could barely tolerate my wearing shorts and sandals in the lobby which just encouraged me to hang around there all the longer.

        @Harry, agree with those sentiments. Vast majority of Thai places also very clean and that along with a comfortable bed is all I really need in a hotel as I spend so little time inside them.

  7. O/T If myself and partner book 2 seperate Business class tickets on Air Berlin, Berlin to Abu Dhabi, can we take an additional person in each chauffeur car that is going Economy with us?

    • Dannyrado says:

      When the phaeton turns up in Berlin, you can usually all just jump in. Also, given the scrum in Abu Dhabi, I cant see anyone stopping a friend jumping in the car either.
      Incidentally, the Berlin driver was superb, and gave us the best tour of Berlin…

  8. Swanhunter says:

    Now that the currency markets have Taken Back Control of the British Peso, airline points already in the bank have an increased value for non-UK prices flights too.

  9. Good article, Rob – but then I would say that given my comments in recent days re Hilton point value 🙂

    You could have used for GBP and USD though rather than symbols (to pick up on other comments!) 😉

  10. Well the cost to buy points in USD for the hotels means that now their baseline value has increased, so I would say the value of the points has increased for outside the U.K redemptions.

    Regarding not noticing any change in value, your only going to realise their value when you redeem and I am sure if you keep them longer enough then their value will change again, the valuation needs to be based on using the points today to be able to compare values.

  11. I’ll be glad once we have given our notice (or not) by March.
    Sooner we know which direction our Countries future lies, the sooner we can ‘get on with it’ again.

    For now, it seems we are being punished.

  12. I’d actually argue there is a relatively clear increase in the price of airline points as well.

    Last year, I did 2 QR ex-EU trips to Asia at a price of approximately 1k GBP each (~1200 GBP with positioning costs). Those same trips out of London (booked with miles) would have cost 500 GBP in fees + 150k miles (~2000 GBP, no positioning costs). This year the math appears to be less clear – QR is doing fewer sales (and the last one I saw was at a 20% premium compared to the ex-PSA fares in May). I wouldn’t be surprised if by the time I get to book my next trip the redemption vs cash ex-EU options are at a parity with positioning costs taken into account.

    • & possible less demand ex regions? Guess if demand goes down to a serious level, QR will just drop the likes of BHX?

  13. Interesting article Rob. Guess time will tell. Gonna put it out there that this shouldn’t be a Brexit rant line as much as I enjoy seeing the £ plummet every time a Brexit minister speaks. I have plenty of views but I think we should probably stick to the facts of points collecting.

    I just assumed airfares would go through a rise post xmas/early 17 like most other purchases with a global supply chain.

  14. Nick Burch says:

    Hopefully Raffles has already bought , in case brexit forces mrs raffles to relocate back to germany…

    • RussellH says:

      Firefox can’t find the server at


    • We talk about a German site but even having a native speaker on the staff does not persuade me. May do Ireland post Aer Club.

      • James67 says:

        Do you still believe AerClub will ever get off the ground?

        • No idea. To be honest, the driver behind doing a separate Irish site would be the launch of an Irish credit which I can get regulatory approval to promote. It wouldn’t pay its way otherwise as I would need to hire someone in Ireland part-time to write for it.

        • Wouldn’t hold out much hope for a travel reward ROI credit card anytime soon.

          Plenty of consumer demand, but this is still a tough economy for any (non tax swerving) business to thrive in, never mind retail banks.

          Despite BBC obsession with City types decamping to Dublin, there’s still net emigration from ROI to UK (well GB anyway).

          Lot of skilled grads driven from Dublin by mad housing situation (migrants inbound often low paid agricultural and call centre staff.

          Imagine one problem with aerclub/avios is confirming enough retail partners, eg Tesco Ireland.

          Again, a tough market.

        • James67 says:

          Interesting that a credit card in itself could swing it for you, I hadn’t realised it could be so lucrative. My gut feeling is 2017 will see avios consolidated in a universal scheme prior to being spun of

        • It doesn’t matter if it is consolidated or not, there will still be separate promos for separate markets (as Miles & More does) and I can’t fill HFP with articles about Irish supermarket chains!

          Quick maths. Imagine I need to pay someone for 2 hours a day, 7 days a week. This would be to cover writing 3-4 Irish articles per week, copying across the non-UK specific HFP content and managing comments. At Euro 15 per hour it will cost me Euro 11,000 per year just to keep the lights on. Even if Amex paid me Euro 50 for a credit card application it will be tricky to break even – I would need 4 successful applications per week. Advertising revenue etc won’t be huge and, in any event, a lot of the readers would be people who already read HFP UK and switch across so that isn’t even additional money.

      • Not sure if things have changed in recent years but reward cards are hard to leverage in Ireland because the Government charges an annual tax per credit card you take out. It was roughly £45 a year when I last lived in Ireland. Makes it harder to get value out of signup bonuses if you have to pay a Government tax on top of any annual fee the card provider may charge.

  15. Dominic says:

    There is no point getting hung up over the price of sterling, movements are a re-balancing of the economy in favour of some and to the detriment of others. Whilst some are complaining over the price of their coffees abroad, some are quietly rubbing their hands at the prospect of increases in demand of UK exports.
    Movements since Brexit to date have been largely based on speculation of what the attitudes of foreign investors to the UK will be in a post-brexit britain. A lot of investors would like to wait and see the final deal, therefore sterling has to devalue to make it attractive enough for investors to continue investing at the same levels as before (mainly to fund high levels of national debt). Once the brexit deal becomes clear in the next two years, many analysts expect sterling to recover.
    Then again, we can’t keep blaming brexit for sterling movements forever. Many things can influence the global currency markets over the next few years, elections in the US, France and Germany for example. If we could predict anything on where it will end up, we’d be very rich. Make the most of your current situation today and not tomorrow.

    • I don’t think discussing a massive drop in the value of Sterling counts as “getting hung up”. It is a perfectly valid discussion point especially on a travel related site. A couple of people have criticised Rob for “complaining” about the cost of his coffee. He didn’t actually complain about it, he just said that its new higher price prompted him to discuss the effect of Sterling’s fall on points values. Also he didn’t mention Brexit in his article.

      Is he not allowed to even discuss the fact that Sterling has fallen without being accused of complaining about Brexit? TBH we have no idea what his views on Brexit are, nor is it really relevant.

  16. Stewart says:

    I’ll be interested to see how the travel industry reacts to Brexit short and long term, everyone i know has at least mentioned the £’s falling rate, and quite a few of those people are cancelling holiday plans as a result.

    If airlines saw a drop in bookings they might need to pull a sale or two out of the bag.

  17. Roger Wilco says:

    “some are quietly rubbing their hands at the prospect of increases in demand of UK exports.”

    … which will be much helped by the customs wall that will be raised between the EU and its largest (by far) export market after a hard brexit.

    Hint: pleased compare the value of UK exports to China (much touted by the brexiters to replace the EU exports) and that to tiny Ireland. Or India (also much touted) vs Belgium

    But in the short term, I thank the brexiters for making my kids’ tuition fees that much cheaper this year!

    • BlackBerryAddict says:

      And I strongly dislike the Brexiters for (among many other reasons) making my kids’ tuition fees and living costs in Europe that much more expensive

    • so will there be large import duties on German cars in this country (good).?

      • Import tariffs work both ways! So all those nice teas and jams we want to sell the EU can also be subject to import duty.

        • Sprout7 says:

          Precisely! So if the tariffs are 8-12% and the currency has devalued by approx 20% then those teas and jams (? ) generate a higher net gain, as explained by the-real-A above.

        • Although of course to export to Europe we’ll have to meet all their standards, except will no longer have any say in the formation of said standards (and if we join the EEA will in addition have to pay for access). So we’ve taken back control, except if we actually want to trade with them in which case we’ve lost control. Oh goody.

      • the real harry says:

        there will be no such thing – cars will escape all tariffs

        think BMW, Audi etc – think Nissan etc

        there’s clearly going to be a quid pro quo where cars are involved

        not for nothing are Germany & the Ruhr the paymasters of Europe

        we’re the German cars’ biggest export market

        guess why Nissan announced Qashqai + 1 other Nissan model will be made in UK at the weekend? (assurances on tariff)

        • James67 says:

          I’m not so sure I agree, Brits who must have a merc or a beemer will pay the price regardless, but Europeans who want a qashqai or xtrail will likely just switch to something else if price becomes too high. I think nissans decision is much simpler than all the speculation suggests. I’ll eat my hat if we leave the EU in 2019, we are still part of it and the pound has crashed so in the short term there is no reason at all for them to leave but I’m in no doubt they will do so as soon as it suits their purpose. The whole idea of what Britain wants and what they will negotiate seems like a pipe dream to me. In reality I suspect they will be offered terms and told to take them or leave them. Only negotiations I forsee is related to the necessay window dressing to ensure all parties can best present the outcone to their own audience.

  18. Roger Wilco says:

    Correction: “…between the UK and its largest (by far) export market”

    • TGLoyalty says:

      Lots also fail to consider that raw materials and supplies come in from across the globe for even our large exporters, most are adding value through assembly or parts etc, so depending on your currency exposure its not as clear cut as exporters are winners.

  19. James C says:

    I missed the Daily Mail article does anyone have a link please?

    • roberto says:

      its in this Wednesday’s paper…

      • Or not! Was meant to be 2 weeks ago, then last week …..

        It must be a month now since the photographer came round. I’ve gone even greyer since then ….

    • I thought you were referring to a Daily Mail editorial piece on the issue dominating the comments page? Silly me.

  20. Wonder if Rob will do a follow up article on Nov 9th. (Assuming there’s no demand for a recount)

    The result across the pond is likely to shift GBPUSD one way or the other…

    And to those caught up in the whole Leave/Remain arguments, and the future impacts, I’d encourage you to take a step back breath and look at the bigger picture, go Google…

    1) Fiat currency creation by central banks
    2) Continued reduction in net energy. (EROEI)

    These have a far greater impact on your future prosperity than Brexit ever will.

    Anyway back on topic…

    Rather than buying HH pts with poor USD rate, one sweet spot is still the old
    TescoCC–>Virgin–>Hilton points shift.. I may take advantage whilst it still exists.

    • the real harry says:

      Sometimes you need to resolve to take action – and then take action!

      Twice in my life I’ve seen GBP1 = USD2 – each time I have resolved to stick a few K in USD deposits, each time I have failed to take action, each time I have cursed my failure to take action

      At the mo we have 2 situations I need to take action on

      1 we have some land that needs selling in EU, we could use the money here, we should sell the land – value has gone up some 20% in a year

      2 my wife’s pension fund (that I manage) is badly balanced and mostly in USD SE Asia and China Opps funds (but spread around 10% x10 so not quite that badly balanced) – the good news is, that means it went up 25% in the last year. I need to crystallise the gains – I must take action

      3 I want to watch – I must take action 🙂

      • 1 & 2 – agreed, wish I had more in USD, but at least I’ve got a bit of a stash in AUD and EUR! Re 3 – started watching it but got bored halfway through. Now onto Black Mirror on Netflix instead 🙂

        • the real harry says:

          Nice one – I think my father has Netflix so might cadge a borrow.

          We lucked out on NZD when we moved there (NZ), currency changed in our favour over 2 years plus the housing market went mad.

          Worked out OK plus we ended up selling our place to nice neighbours who had a father to care for with senile dementia (ie moved into our old place).

          Got a bit screwed by the auction house on our furniture but hey

        • Latest series of Black Mirror is excellent, great ideas and great plot twists.

        • Totally agree, have also been catching up on some season 2 episodes I missed, interspersed with some Deutchsland 83, which is also excellent!