BAEC changes – “2 yrs in the making” and based on “extensive modelling”?
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I am sorry…
I feel that I may have inadvertently contributed to this (I say this in jest):
“The changes we’re making are based on extensive modelling of our customers’ behaviour”.I gave up on BA and BA Gold several years ago. I let my status drop down all the levels to Blue.
Sometime in 2023, when I (think I) was still Bronze, I did book a shorthaul BA fight
(One-way, Economy ARN-LHR for about £28).When it came to online check-in I was offered a paid-upgrade to Business Class for about £60.
I decided to go with it for the lounge access at ARN and more comfortable onboard experience.
I guess this might have made a datapoint showing upselling might be more effective to low / no status passengers than those with status. To the extent they got a 100% increase in revenue from me.
What they don’t know of course is that I did not enjoy the flight experience nor much of my time in the lounge…and hence will be unlikely to repeat. Plus they don’t see that I spent my annual flight budget on carriers in StarAlliance instead of OneWorld.
Update: I think I was Blue on the date the flight but maybe Bronze when I booked many months in advance.
I am sorry…
I feel that I may have inadvertently contributed to this (I say this in jest):
“The changes we’re making are based on extensive modelling of our customers’ behaviour”.I gave up on BA and BA Gold several years ago. I let my status drop down all the levels to Blue.
Sometime in 2023, when I (think I) was still Bronze, I did book a shorthaul BA fight
(One-way, Economy ARN-LHR for about £28).When it came to online check-in I was offered a paid-upgrade to Business Class for about £60.
I decided to go with it for the lounge access at ARN and more comfortable onboard experience.
I guess this might have made a datapoint showing upselling might be more effective to low / no status passengers than those with status. To the extent they got a 100% increase in revenue from me.
What they don’t know of course is that I did not enjoy the flight experience nor much of my time in the lounge…and hence will be unlikely to repeat. Plus they don’t see that I spent my annual flight budget on carriers in StarAlliance instead of OneWorld.
This is a great analogy of why their analytics are completely off. There is a data skew from the financials, and behaviour is hard to predict out of sparse or inconsistent data – so they stick to hard numbers and quantify the exploit they can make on a nuanced use case.
Stuff like this no doubt does contribute to a twisted view of reality on the behaviours of FFlyers. Have to wonder how many at BA marketing use BA as a ‘regular customer’ as opposed to jollies or discounted hols.I’m BA gold and will be next year but for the last time. I know BA won’t lose sleep about this on an individual level but now unshackled by BA loyalty my spending patterns have already changed. On my next trip I would have driven to Manchester and flown down to LHR and onwards all with BA and all in biz – now I’m flying from LBA with my now status match with KLM – I don’t care about biz (although KLM offer very cheap last minute upgrades) because LBA is so near where I live. Likewise an April trip to Dalaman I would have gone MAN-LHR-DLM in biz with BA now a direct flight from LBA with Jet2.
This is not in itself disastrous for BA but replicated across millions of customers it will be. Remember it was the leisure travellers that kept BA going during covid.@davedent, coincidentally we’ve just been discussing LBA as a departure point as it’s the in-laws local airport – it’s further for us than MAN but I can imagine the experience is infinitely better!
Good to know that KLM serves AMS from LBA as it’s obviously good for connections where there are no direct flights from the north of England.
@NorthernLass – LBA is 3 miles from my house I can be in bed 25 mins after a flight lands. Although not as big as MAN hardly any luggage goes down the reject Shute and people smile. The Leeds lounge is much nicer than the escape lounge but good luck getting in there with a priority pass. You can fly to AMS and DUB and that opens up loads of possibilities. Pop in for a cup of tea !
Thanks, do you have parking, lol?! In-laws are near Harrogate, though, so we can always camp there. After great experiences at GLA and NCL last year, I can imagine LBA is very similar. I’ve not had PP for years as it’s virtually useless at MAN as well!
OH was born in Halifax so presumably can bring me back into Yorkshire as his spouse on the return 🤣
Yes we do have parking – Harrogate is a bigger trek. You just have to make sure the Uber drops you in the right place so you don’t pay the drop off charge !
There’s a much bigger queue for non Yorkshire people.
I can believe it 😂
would love to see the underlying data used re. BAEC changes. The total outlay for someone achieving status ‘on the cheap’ and then additional flights to benefit from lounge access, vs the revenue generated from the flights etc. how much did the average status holder cost BA from each lounge visit? £10-20??
Recent article on OMAAT says, “Based on what I’ve heard (and these are ballpark figures), you can generally expect that access to a business class lounge belonging to a major alliance will be billed at somewhere around $50 per person, and a contract or Priority Pass lounge will be billed at somewhere around $30 per person. Meanwhile for first class lounges, the reimbursement rate could even be a bit higher than that.”
So a Silver return trip in Economy costs BA about $100. Plus a lost opportunity to earn baggage fees or seat reservation fees. Plus the cost of upsetting high-yielding customers who face a queue at check-in. Nine times out of ten, the fare will be loss making.
was just thinking about the prices offered for upgrading a ticket from economy to club on short haul. you can get upgrade prices of ~£60 – which in addition to lounge access, provides an additional 0.5 seat space, splitting the middle seat between the two passengers, on board food and drink etc. alongside the other soft benefits to the passenger. So unless BA are selling upgrades at a loss to drive future business, then this $100 return figure must be way off.
A £60 upgrade is probably because Economy is too full and someone must be upgraded anyway, possibly for free.
A £60 upgrade is probably because Economy is too full and someone must be upgraded anyway, possibly for free.
club return lhr-ncl out 6 aug 25, back 13 aug. Total cost £166.43. Air Passenger Duty – United Kingdom £28, passenger service charge £36.43, carrier charge £14, fare £88. Average each way cost of £83.215. Less APD that’s ~£69 each way. Less the passenger service charge that’s £51 each way. That needs to cover lounge, 1/2 blocked middle seat etc, etc. given the moving curtain in short haul club, surely they’re not selling seats this far in advance at a loss?
I gave up on BA and BA Gold several years ago. I let my status drop down all the levels to Blue.
When it came to online check-in I was offered a paid-upgrade to Business Class for about £60.
I guess this might have made a datapoint showing upselling might be more effective to low / no status passengers than those with status. To the extent they got a 100% increase in revenue from me.
What they don’t know of course is that I did not enjoy the flight experience nor much of my time in the lounge…and hence will be unlikely to repeat. Plus they don’t see that I spent my annual flight budget on carriers in StarAlliance instead of OneWorld.
Plenty of Gold and even GGL do (or did) these paid online upgrades (POUG).
They will know your annual spend with BA. If you stopped flying with BA they will also know that; had you continued to fly with BA, been offered more POUGs and declined them, their data would also show that. BA also records the prices at which people take up the offer or decline the offer, obviously.
When I was silver, I got plenty of free upgrades from WTP to CW and CW to F. It has been widely reported that silvers used to be offered these upgrades likely as a “taster” to see how many subsequently purchased the higher cabin outright. When my purchasing habits with BA did not change the upgrades stopped and I never got upgraded once as a gold.
I’m BA gold and will be next year but for the last time. I know BA won’t lose sleep about this on an individual level but now unshackled by BA loyalty my spending patterns have already changed. On my next trip I would have driven to Manchester and flown down to LHR and onwards all with BA and all in biz – now I’m flying from LBA with my now status match with KLM – I don’t care about biz (although KLM offer very cheap last minute upgrades) because LBA is so near where I live. Likewise an April trip to Dalaman I would have gone MAN-LHR-DLM in biz with BA now a direct flight from LBA with Jet2.
This is not in itself disastrous for BA but replicated across millions of customers it will be. Remember it was the leisure travellers that kept BA going during covid.Which raises the question of why you didn’t do this before. Is it purely because of the KLM status match then? Had KLM offered a status match years ago, would you have switched to Skyteam regardless of the BAEC?
A £60 upgrade is probably because Economy is too full and someone must be upgraded anyway, possibly for free.
club return lhr-ncl out 6 aug 25, back 13 aug. Total cost £166.43. Air Passenger Duty – United Kingdom £28, passenger service charge £36.43, carrier charge £14, fare £88. Average each way cost of £83.215. Less APD that’s ~£69 each way. Less the passenger service charge that’s £51 each way. That needs to cover lounge, 1/2 blocked middle seat etc, etc. given the moving curtain in short haul club, surely they’re not selling seats this far in advance at a loss?
Well I guess £51 must be the break even / marginal sort of price.
They may want to operate the flight anyway for connections, so the rest of the seats can be sold at cost perhaps. Based on modelling of previous years’ summer school holiday data of how many long-haul connecting tickets they have sold.
Also NCL flights are amongst the first to get canned during bad weather or other disruption. Any issues and they will just send you on the train, or even a coach / taxis to and from Heathrow. If there aren’t enough seats sold closer to the date of the flight, they may combine two flights into one, or rarely, even allocate another flight if one gets overbooked. I have seen all this happen over the years.
A £60 upgrade is probably because Economy is too full and someone must be upgraded anyway, possibly for free.
club return lhr-ncl out 6 aug 25, back 13 aug. Total cost £166.43. Air Passenger Duty – United Kingdom £28, passenger service charge £36.43, carrier charge £14, fare £88. Average each way cost of £83.215. Less APD that’s ~£69 each way. Less the passenger service charge that’s £51 each way. That needs to cover lounge, 1/2 blocked middle seat etc, etc. given the moving curtain in short haul club, surely they’re not selling seats this far in advance at a loss?
You figured out an airline business model based on one random flight on a random date 6 months out?
We seem to have plenty of experts here these days.
A £60 upgrade is probably because Economy is too full and someone must be upgraded anyway, possibly for free.
club return lhr-ncl out 6 aug 25, back 13 aug. Total cost £166.43. Air Passenger Duty – United Kingdom £28, passenger service charge £36.43, carrier charge £14, fare £88. Average each way cost of £83.215. Less APD that’s ~£69 each way. Less the passenger service charge that’s £51 each way. That needs to cover lounge, 1/2 blocked middle seat etc, etc. given the moving curtain in short haul club, surely they’re not selling seats this far in advance at a loss?
You figured out an airline business model based on one random flight on a random date 6 months out?
We seem to have plenty of experts here these days.
thanks for the compliment. I take it from your response you think they’re selling the seat at a loss? If you see my earlier comment in this thread I said it would be interesting to see the numbers involved in the modelling, clearly the majority of us don’t actually know the numbers.
I’m BA gold and will be next year but for the last time. I know BA won’t lose sleep about this on an individual level but now unshackled by BA loyalty my spending patterns have already changed. On my next trip I would have driven to Manchester and flown down to LHR and onwards all with BA and all in biz – now I’m flying from LBA with my now status match with KLM – I don’t care about biz (although KLM offer very cheap last minute upgrades) because LBA is so near where I live. Likewise an April trip to Dalaman I would have gone MAN-LHR-DLM in biz with BA now a direct flight from LBA with Jet2.
This is not in itself disastrous for BA but replicated across millions of customers it will be. Remember it was the leisure travellers that kept BA going during covid.Which raises the question of why you didn’t do this before. Is it purely because of the KLM status match then? Had KLM offered a status match years ago, would you have switched to Skyteam regardless of the BAEC?
Loyalty is about making people behave irrationally in your favour and BAEC has certainly being achieving that with some people!
I’m 165 points short of silver, and I was really tempted to go for it. In fact, had I booked my non-BA flights with BA in the past year I would have made it. But it made no sense… I’d have spent many hundreds of pounds more, literally chopped an entire day off one holiday and visited worse lounges while the biggest advantage I’d have got was early seat choice on my CW redemption to Japan that I want prepared to spend £100 on anyway. Yes, we’d have got benefits on future BA flights but a couple of lounge visits (if we’re flying economy) or extra baggage allowance (useful for the annual ski trip, but Swiss / Lufthansa do this for free anyway) doesn’t outweigh the cost, or the experience of flying other airlines.
Forget the lounge (it’s not the great half the time anyway) and do what’s right for you… and enjoy a whole host of different airlines while you’re at it!
Just think how much they would have saved on both Consultants Fees and IT spend if they had simply increased the Tier Point Threshold’s. Simply make Silver say 800 Tier Points. Easy to understand and implement. I would also have thought that the ending of the double tier points on BA holidays would in itself sort out any lounge overcrowding within 24 months. Zero spend required.
Definitely they should have had a focus group of HFP readers since they’ve apparently been extensively modelling our behaviour!
Just think how much they would have saved on both Consultants Fees and IT spend if they had simply increased the Tier Point Threshold’s. Simply make Silver say 800 Tier Points. Easy to understand and implement. I would also have thought that the ending of the double tier points on BA holidays would in itself sort out any lounge overcrowding within 24 months. Zero spend required.
Yep, they could have done a few measures which would have been better including 1) Ending the Double BA Holiday TPs
2) Raise the TP threshold requirements to say 500,1000 and 2000 for Bronze, Silver and Gold respectively.
3) Adjusted the distances on the segment based TP awards, so for the 140TPs in Business instead of being 2000 miles, maybe 2500 or 3000 Iberia has. This would have reduced the TPs awarded on the AUH-JKK TP run via Colombo.
4) They could award the flexible fare buckets more TPs to reward those corporate clients if they felt so inclined that they seem to do now without penalising self-funded travellers.Whilst these measures no one would really like (maybe bar 4 for corporate travellers) it’s far preferable to the new ‘Club’ BA has announced and I’m sure most of us would have swallowed this reluctantly.
We seem to have plenty of experts here these days.
Introduce biz 101. Go around the room and ask each “consultant” how much it cost to get them to the meeting. Then ask how much they are charging you to get to the meeting…
Then decide whether they have a scooby doo
Just think how much they would have saved on both Consultants Fees and IT spend if they had simply increased the Tier Point Threshold’s. Simply make Silver say 800 Tier Points. Easy to understand and implement. I would also have thought that the ending of the double tier points on BA holidays would in itself sort out any lounge overcrowding within 24 months. Zero spend required.
Yep, they could have done a few measures which would have been better including 1) Ending the Double BA Holiday TPs
2) Raise the TP threshold requirements to say 500,1000 and 2000 for Bronze, Silver and Gold respectively.
3) Adjusted the distances on the segment based TP awards, so for the 140TPs in Business instead of being 2000 miles, maybe 2500 or 3000 Iberia has. This would have reduced the TPs awarded on the AUH-JKK TP run via Colombo.
4) They could award the flexible fare buckets more TPs to reward those corporate clients if they felt so inclined that they seem to do now without penalising self-funded travellers.Whilst these measures no one would really like (maybe bar 4 for corporate travellers) it’s far preferable to the new ‘Club’ BA has announced and I’m sure most of us would have swallowed this reluctantly.
All very sensible suggestions, and in various forms precedented with other airlines.
As part of 4, they could reduce the TPs for discounted premium fare buckets (as has been the case for economy short haul), even without increasing TPs for flexible fares. While lots here and elsewhere would complain, it’s an easy one to justify and understand as a business matter. It also removes the unpredictability and reverse incentives of the new system (eg, the same ticket in a fare sale now earns fewer TPs).
I’m BA gold and will be next year but for the last time. I know BA won’t lose sleep about this on an individual level but now unshackled by BA loyalty my spending patterns have already changed. On my next trip I would have driven to Manchester and flown down to LHR and onwards all with BA and all in biz – now I’m flying from LBA with my now status match with KLM – I don’t care about biz (although KLM offer very cheap last minute upgrades) because LBA is so near where I live. Likewise an April trip to Dalaman I would have gone MAN-LHR-DLM in biz with BA now a direct flight from LBA with Jet2.
This is not in itself disastrous for BA but replicated across millions of customers it will be. Remember it was the leisure travellers that kept BA going during covid.It’ll be interesting to see the effect of the changes on regional traffic given KLM have much better connectivity via Amsterdam than BA do via Heathrow.
Definitely they should have had a focus group of HFP readers since they’ve apparently been extensively modelling our behaviour!
The modelling was basically a pivot table on a spreadsheet based on numbers of people who spend £10k in a year on BA flights and if that number is about the number of people they would like to see in the T5 lounge on a saturday. e.g about 50 max. Finger in the air, no science backing I would say. I honestly think its just an experiment, albeit a super high cost one to BA.
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