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Hi all,
I have held a minimum of £8,000 in Premium Bonds at all times over the last year. Previously, I held the full £50,000, and won between £25 and £100 every month. But since reducing my holding a year ago, I haven’t won on a single occasion. Not even a single, measly £25.
Martin Lewis’ website advises me that the average win for my level of holding (taking only the minimum £8,000, ignoring that I’ve had more at other times in the year) should be £75. But what I would like to be able to calculate is the other way round: what’s the percentage likelihood, when having held £8,000 for one year, of having won £0 in total?
The purpose of this is to address a paranoid hypothesis I have that my account has somehow been flagged, without communication, as a result of the Creation debacle (both my Creation credit cards were closed by them as part of the mass closure).
Does anyone know how I would go about doing this calculation, please?
(Sorry if this isn’t in the appropriate place. I know NS&I is not a debit or credit card. However, it felt like the most likely place, please move if not.)
I get it as approximately 5.5%. If you’re lucky Genghis will be along soon. Roughly you have:
8,000/34,500 chance of a prize each month.
This means a 26,500/34,500 chance of not winning.The above is rough and ready though as clearly, even if you had 34,500 bonds you are not guaranteed a win. To get the exact result would not be possible using my phone’s calculator function.
But using the above 26,500/34,500 i.e. ~76.8% chance of not winning a prize in a month, all you need to do is multiply that out x12 so 0.768 x 0.768 x etc.
Someone in fixed income will correct me shortly. I’m a dumb equity grunt.
Actually if a stats person comes along is the answer going to be there are 8,000 x 12 i.e. 96,000 unique chances of winning at 1:34,500
Therefore the answer is (34,499/34,500)^96,000 ?
If so, my phone can do it and that is a 6.2% chance of not winning which is clearly low but roughly the same odds as getting a 0 or 00 in a roulette wheel with two blanks.
Back to bed now.
- This reply was modified 55 years, 4 months ago by .
1 minus the chance of winning.
I went four straight months winning nothing last year on 50k. 😭
Worth reminding people that if you oay tax on your interest income then Premium Bonds remain the best way to keep £50k in cash which you may need at relatively short notice.
You will average 1.45 x £25 prizes per month so £434 per year. This is 0.87%.
Even if you don’t pay tax on interest this is very good. if you pay 45% tax it is equivalent to 1.58% which is impossible to get on semi-instant access cash,
https://premiumbondsprizes.com/#8000
Made by a random internet person
https://premiumbondsprizes.com/#8000
Made by a random internet person
I’d point out that it shows the odds of not winning in a year on £8,000 as being 6.2% but I’m too busy patting myself on the back.
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