Cuba removed and Switzerland, Jamaica and Czech Republic added to UK quarantine list

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• Oli says:

  27 Aug27 August 19:58

  It is interesting that most people holiday Saturday to Saturday and not Saturday to Sunday for example. I do not understand why.
  We are advertising an house for rent in France on Airbnb and it’s funny that about half of our guests rent Saturday to Saturday. What are people doing with their Sundays?

  • Optimus Prime says:

    27 Aug27 August 20:01

    Unpacking, laundry, etc.

  • Andrew says:

    27 Aug27 August 20:43

    Making space for the next guests to have a week-long holiday, too? Otherwise if you did Saturday-Sunday the next people would have to start their break on a Sunday.

    Obviously breaks that don’t last seven nights are available(!) but it seems to be the default length of time for a holiday just like the default at work is for people book an hour-long meeting in my diary (or multiples thereof…)

  • Rich says:

    27 Aug27 August 21:20

    Harks back to the days of package holidays & charter flights, I guess. Flights run on a Saturday, accommodation changeover on a Saturday. Easy – everybody knows where they stand, and you sell in blocks of 1 week.

• Mikeact says:

  27 Aug27 August 20:10

  It’s all very well, opening up, maybe, London/New York but I’m still not sure why? What this is telling the US population that no matter what, wherever you live, hot spot or not…just catch an internal to New York and then on to London. Likewise, from London to anywhere you like in the US. If this is the case, you may as well just open up the whole country..full stop.

  • J says:

    27 Aug27 August 21:02

    If the UK effectively opens up to the US, other countries might decide to impose additional restrictions on the UK.

• Peter K says:

  27 Aug27 August 21:08

  “As I have written before, it would arguably have been more sensible to impose quarantine from 4am on Sunday morning”.

  I have given this thought and wonder if it is because of human nature. If you make people spend all day rushing to get home they will not mingle with the locals as much. If you give them an extra 24hrs on top some will make the most of it going to bars/clubs as much as possible.
  If you make the decision on a Friday rather than a Thursday then it’s harder for travel companies to rebook those on the now cancelled Saturday holidays.

  • Andrew says:

    27 Aug27 August 21:29

    Absolutely – it’s best that once the decision is made that a country isn’t safe, people have to travel home ASAP and not continue to get infected.

    • Peter K says:

      27 Aug27 August 22:10

      But surely you want to keep on that low infection/death rate trajectory. That’s the whole point.
      It doesn’t take much looking into what’s happening in Europe to see what happens if you don’t.

      • Stu N says:

        27 Aug27 August 22:24

        The intention was always to keep infections to a rate that wouldn’t overwhelm the NHS, not get it to zero. Even Australia and New Zealand who have everything on their side in terms of economic development, healthcare and geography haven’t managed that.

        COVID-19 is out there – the world is getting better at identifying cases early, tracing contacts to limit spread, managing symptoms and treating serious ones in hospital to minimise morbidity and mortality. We are also getting better at identifying and using levers to control the spread of the virus in a way that keeps a modicum of normality in society without having a return to the position we were in back in March/ April.

        We need to accept that infection rates will rise a bit as lockdown measures ease, and get used to targeted measures to manage any local outbreaks.

        • Blindman says:

          28 Aug28 August 06:55

          At last someone who thinks the same as me!

          Well said.

          Just wish the other 90% of the population would hurry up and get this.

      • Andrew says:

        28 Aug28 August 06:42

        And what exactly is happening in Europe (and the UK to some extent)? Cases are rising as everyone tests more. Deaths and hospital admissions are going down everywhere. So far nothing we’ve done to open up has been able to change that despite complaints from the doom merchants. At some point we’re going to have to accept that the “just wait 2 weeks” warning isn’t going to come true.

        As Rob says we have to keep this in perspective.

        • Yuff says:

          28 Aug28 August 07:35

          +1

      • Joe says:

        28 Aug28 August 16:35

        Well, we in Switzerland have just been banned, and we are getting about a death a day. That’s as low as the UK (adjusting for population). Makes you think we are just better at testing.

        We have very low hospitalization rates too. Really the decision is complete nonsense.

        You couldn’t make it up.

      • RWJ says:

        31 Aug31 August 11:03

        Exactly. Let’s keep that ventilation rate down.

    • Stu N says:

      27 Aug27 August 22:12

      We are self isolating after being in France for a couple of weeks and not making it back before the cut-off. To be fair, we had decided not to bother even trying if rules changed when we were away.

      Me, my partner and – if you believe Simon Calder – 400,000 other people are now spending 14 days confined to barracks. The difference in infection rates between UK and France is – at most – 20 cases per 100,000 so quarantine measures will save less than 100 additional cases in UK, all things being equal.

      It’s totally disproportionate to the risks and it’s killing the travel industry. I’m now in the position for the first time in a decade that I have no forward bookings for any travel outside the UK because I’m not prepared to self-isolate again. It’s been worth it for a main annual holiday but a weekend break? No chance.
      The only way forward has to be a double-test approach. Test on arrival, and test after 4-5 days and if you’re double clean you’re free. Until then, I cant be bothered with overseas travel. It’s going to be a long winter…

      • John says:

        28 Aug28 August 06:54

        It’s 20 per day, so 1120 additional cases

        Anyway it’s not about that but about the risk that any given person is infected

        • Stu N says:

          28 Aug28 August 10:52

          Sorry, typo. Should be “less than 1000”. Whatever, in excess of 399,000 people having to quarantine to save a tiny rounding error in imported cases. It’s nonsense.

    • Andrew says:

      27 Aug27 August 22:30

      Yes exactly! Let’s keep it at this low level and not let it rise again with infections from other countries.

      • TGLoyalty says:

        27 Aug27 August 23:35

        Didn’t realise it only came from abroad.

        Is their a UK strain that only infects foreigners too?

    • Yan says:

      27 Aug27 August 22:32

      That is not the point as there were fewer ventilated patients when the peak of SARS-CoV-2 importations into the UK occurred in March.

      The scientific rationale behind a threshold-based quarantine rule is to limit the number of importations by deterring rather than banning foreign travel (consider it a privilege during a pandemic). It can take weeks to pick up community transmission chains (and a few more to reflect in ICU numbers) if test and contact tracing and self-isolation compliance are inefficient as 6 months ago and now

      • Riccatti says:

        28 Aug28 August 07:05

        Two facts:
        1. Self-isolation compliance and contact tracing are inefficient — or we would’ve been done with this 3-4 weeks from March 24th.
        2. Self-isolation and quarantine bingo are destroying the productivity, output and economy.

        The “scientific rationale” is very much alike trading on a technical analysis indicator — eg. 7D moving average. That’s is a very adequate model for a stock price! or R number. This is all very much like doing an invasive surgery with a piece of bronze metal sharpened by a road stone…

    • Ian M says:

      28 Aug28 August 21:06

      Things like perspective any form of sense are long since dead.

  • mr_jetlag says:

    27 Aug27 August 21:49

    There will come a point – if it hasn’t already -when diminishing returns kick in and people will just shrug their shoulders and carry on with holidays. Dom and Stan never bothered to follow government advice or quarantine either…

• ChrisC says:

  27 Aug27 August 22:14

  I read on another more US based blog about the UK-JFK corridor

  Thinking there is that it looks possible in theory but it’s likely to get caught up in US Federal-State relations and their differing political leaderships and it would be seen as benefiting a state with a governor of the opposing party getting something that benefits them that other states can’t

• Jan M says:

  27 Aug27 August 22:17

  Anyone know a good website that has the 7-day average infection rate per 100,000 citizens that the government uses? Lots of different stats flying around but can’t find this one. I am temporarily based in Germany. Would want to rush back and spend some time back home for a bit if it looks like Germany will be added back to the list…

  • Peter K says:

    27 Aug27 August 22:27

    If you are looking at a county by county rate then the BBC news website has a page to help.

    • Jan M says:

      27 Aug27 August 22:32

      Yes, but as far as I can tell, they only show the total number of cases, not per 100,000 people. The closest I’ve been able to find is the NYT, but that uses as 14-day rather than 7-day average. It shouldn’t be this difficult!

      • Stoneman says:

        27 Aug27 August 22:50

        https://www.statista.com/statistics/1139048/coronavirus-case-rates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/

        This is a nice set of charts to give you a steer on where is likely get onto the list!

        • PerkyPat says:

          28 Aug28 August 10:40

          Looks like a 2 centre holiday in Armenia and Latvia might be a good option.

      • Peter K says:

        27 Aug27 August 22:59

        https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274
        Part way down there is the form to put a county in to get a 7 day rate.

  • David D says:

    27 Aug27 August 22:31

    My better half has been tracking this since February, her stats have Germany at 11.09 per 100k as a 7 day rate currently as of figures updated overnight. Currently, she is tracking a limited number of countries mainly based on places we have forward bookings or interests in.

    • Stoneman says:

      27 Aug27 August 22:43

      Well I am off to the Black Forest for two weeks on Wednesday so by the looks of it, Germany should be okay if 20 per 100k is the threshold for triggering a qurantine. Personally not bothered about qurantining on return, more concerned with the Germans not letting me in without a qurantine period,

      • John says:

        28 Aug28 August 06:56

        German criteria are different, they removed Luxembourg already, and out of Belgium, only Brussels and Antwerp are considered high risk

        • Stoneman says:

          28 Aug28 August 08:22

          I see the Germans are conforming to the stereotype of being sensible by pursuing the regional approach.

  • MadeUpName says:

    27 Aug27 August 22:52

    Follow @PPaulCharles on Twitter. He does a good daily update. Someone else on here recommended him.

    • Rhys says:

      28 Aug28 August 08:34

      Paul is a great guy, he does a lot of excellent work with Finnair!

• Riccatti says:

  28 Aug28 August 07:07

  Bingo!

• Adam says:

  28 Aug28 August 08:42

  Any views on why there are plenty of other counties below the magical 20/100k number which aren’t on the list?

  • Adam says:

    28 Aug28 August 08:51

    *countries

    • Phillip says:

      28 Aug28 August 12:40

      I guess it also depends on how easily people can actually enter said countries! If the numbers are rising and entry into the country is not subject to any form of testing, random or otherwise, that may result in quicker action. Some countries require negative test results, others perform them randomly, and others just allow people in because they need them!

      And of course there is politics and the media looking for headlines!

  • TGLoyalty says:

    28 Aug28 August 09:33

    Mostly political like all of this. there may be some consideration of how much they are actually testing and deaths.

    • Anthony Edwards says:

      28 Aug28 August 09:52

      Yes I’m keeping an eye on Sweden, but doubt it will come off the list quickly even when it’s been below 20 for a while

      • Phillip says:

        28 Aug28 August 12:42

        It seems that once on the list, taking them off requires more than just a drop below 20 cases / 100,000 which is understandable but as with everything, something more transparent to help people plan wouldn’t go amiss.

        • TGLoyalty says:

          28 Aug28 August 14:06

          Singapore and Canada have been below 20 for weeks if not months yet no corridor.

          It really is just political nonsense.

        • The Lord says:

          28 Aug28 August 15:01

          But what would be the political purpose of excluding Canada and Singapore be?

        • Dubious says:

          28 Aug28 August 15:06

          It might be a reciprocal approach.

        • Dubious says:

          28 Aug28 August 15:05

          I see that Malaysia have extended their restrictions on people coming into the country:
          https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/malaysias-pm-muhyiddin-says-extending-movement-curbs-to-dec-31

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