Maximise your Avios, air miles and hotel points

Bits: UBS downgrades IAG over Avios, good Accor / Bicester deal, 100% bonus buying Hilton points

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News in brief:

UBS downgrades IAG shares, partly blames Avios changes

We will have a longer article on Monday about the discussion on IAG’s recent financial conference call regarding the changes to British Airways Club.

I thought it was worth dropping this little titbit in now. As summarised here:

British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines Group SA shares have been downgraded to ‘Sell’ by UBS, which has set a new price target of 350p.

Analysts at the bank said that while IAG remains the strongest European long-haul network operator, it sees the balance of share price risk skewed to the downside.

UBS cited four concerns: slowing profit growth, North Atlantic yield trends, the UK economic backdrop, and changes to the Avios loyalty programme.

Hat-tip to bhbloke on Flyertalk.

Earn double Accor points at Bicester Village

Good Accor Live Limitless deal at Bicester Village

If you have a shopping trip to Bicester Village coming up, you may – perhaps oddly – find that hotel programme Accor Live Limitless is your best travel rewards partner.

The standard earning rate at Bicester is 2 Accor Live Limitless points per £1 spent. As 1 Accor point = 2 Eurocents off your next hotel stay (albeit redeemed in chunks of 1,000 points) you’re getting roughly 3.5% back.

Until 31st August, the earn rate is doubled. If you spend £500+ (in your entire shopping trip, not necessarily in one transaction) you will receive double points. This means 4 Accor Live Limitless points per £1, so roughly 7% back.

It’s a decent deal, but I’d only do it if you already have an Accor Live Limitless points balance which this would be topping up. If you’re not already active in ALL then you may end up with points you never spend.

You CAN’T double up with Accor points (or indeed any other non-Avios travel partner points) and the ‘in-store’ card based Avios partnership.

As we covered here, you earn 1 Avios per £1 spent (rate recently dropped) when you register your credit cards on the Avios website and use them at Bicester Village. If you do this, however, you won’t earn points if you submit your receipts to another travel partner – Bicester will reject the claim. I know, because I tried it!

Details of the Accor offer, including special benefits for Platinum and Diamond members of Accor Live Limitess, are on the Bicester Village site here.

PS. If you spend £250+ in a single transaction, Avios has a ‘triple points’ offer running at Bicester until 31st August. This means 3 Avios per £1 spent instead of the usual 1 per £1.

The Accor deal is more generous but the Avios deal is less bother if you don’t already collect Accor points.

Get a 100% bonus when you buy Hilton Honors hotel points

Get a 100% bonus when you buy Hilton Honors hotel points

Hilton Honors has launched a new 100% bonus for buying 5,000+ Hilton Honors points. The offer runs to 25th Septemnber.

If you’ve never bought hotel points, it can be a great deal. There’s an example below of how you can save 55% on a break in Sardinia next week, for example, although you need at least Silver status in Hilton Honors to save this much.

Some people may see a smaller bonus percentage, or a price discount, as part of Hilton’s market testing. These offers are less generous.

The Hilton ‘buy points’ page is here

The annual purchase limit is 160,000 points pre-bonus. The cost for the maximum 320,000 points (160,000 + 100%) would be £1,320 which is 0.41p per point. This is above our target valuation for a Hilton Honors points at 0.33p but you can still do ok at this level because Hilton caps the points cost of hotels on peak dates.

Here’s an example at Conrad Chia Laguna Sardinia from 18th to 23rd August. I’m assuming at such short notice you’d book a non-refundable rate which is €860 per night for a King Deluxe room, so €4,300 for five nights.

For points, five nights would cost you (if you have status and get 5-4-4 on reward bookings) 400,000 Hilton Honors points. You could buy these – you’d need your partner to buy the final 80,000 and transfer them to you for free – for £1,650 which is €1,903.  You would save 55%.

Do note that Hilton restricts new members from buying points immediately. The rule is:

A new Hilton Honors Member may purchase Points 30 days after enrollment if the account reflects activity including a stay (as defined herein) or earning Hilton Honors Points through a Hilton Hilton Honors Marketing Partner. After 90 days of enrollment, a new Member is eligible to purchase Points regardless of their account activity.

The page to buy points is here if you are interested. The offer ends on 25th September.

PS. If you are looking for a quick way to Hilton Honors Silver status to get ‘five reward nights for the points of four’, remember that the Hilton Honors Debit Card comes with free Silver status. Your status is updated immediately when you activate the card. Click here to apply – the annual fee is currently halved for the first year.

Comments (57)

  • Dominic says:

    Surprised by the Avios loyalty programme note. Do enough people *really* care?

    Yes, we do as frequent flyers… but equally if I did a poll amongst most of my contacts, I imagine the vast majority know nothing about it (and those that do are flying business anyway)?

    • Colin MacKinnon says:

      Is it the known changes to BA Club – ie status, which I don’t give a personal stuff about – or further unpublished changes to the actual Avios scheme (now it is a separate business) which they have heard about?

      • Rob says:

        The loss of leisure travellers due to the known changes.

        • JDB says:

          Has there actually been a meaningful loss of (premium) leisure travellers as a result of the changes? Anecdotally, it seems there’s more noise than reality and a counterweight has been strong bookings at BAH.

          IAG has reported a slight downturn in point to point US economy passengers, probably unrelated to BAC changes.

          • JohnG says:

            Hasn’t everyone, or almost everyone, who would lose status due to this change still got it for now? If so, expecting to already see the impact in sales sounds like expecting a drop-off in sales -before- an announced price increase kicks in…

          • Rob says:

            Correct. Only people dropping mid year are those who were comped status via a GGL member.

            As we’ve said, if you fly Y and you have BA status you’d be a bit nuts to defect now however annoyed you are.

        • AJ says:

          It would be really interesting to understand the level of impact of the changes to the Club but alas, as has been mentioned elsewhere, it will be very nuanced.

          I joined BAEC in 2001 and have thrown huge sums towards BA ever since. Today, I fly my last 4 flights with BA and have absolutely no forward bookings for the first time since 2001 due to changes BA have implemented. Off to pastures new.

          • BA Flyer IHG Stayer says:

            TBH I don’t think they’ll be that much of a difference to BA.

            Just look at all the posts asking about how to put their RJ or other OW programme number into their BA bookings.

            People are still flying on BA flights and at the end of the day that’s all BA cares about.

            I don’t see huge swathes of people deserting BA in favour of other airlines and alliances and switching who they book with.

    • tomtom135 says:

      This is exactly what I thought, aren’t we’re a small minority? Yet, since the changes, I haven’t booked a single cash flight through BA and put all my regular work flights through other airlines. Maybe enough are doing this to make a difference? Also I have plenty of friends and colleagues who’ve never even heard of HFP who have brought up the changes in conversation and have nothing positive to say.

      • The real Swiss Tony says:

        I guess this – it’s the last few seats on the plane that they sell that are “free money” so a 1% drop in load factor doesn’t equate to a 1% drop in profits.

        But it still seems so nuanced that I’m struggling to believe there’s not the slightest bit of subjectivity in the analysis.

        Devaluations and downgrades have been happening since the dawn of FFPs, it’s just this one probably hits most of the UBS research desk quite hard….

        • Nico says:

          IAG announced bookings were similar to last year for H2.
          I understand the argument, given what they communicate on, we can’t know, they should have a better idea though.

        • r* says:

          Devaluations happen, but BA dont have a particularly good public opinion level so when they do a huge ‘devaluation’ like what they did with baec, it gets more coverage.

          Go look at things like hotukdeals when people post anything about BA sales, its full of ppl saying how bad they are and I doubt most of them travel a lot.

  • Andrew J says:

    The Avios earning rate at Bicester seems to have now changed to 1 Avios per £1, but currently being offered at 3 Avios per £1 with the triple promotion.

  • Mario says:

    Seems like an analyst at UBS is upset that they are losing their Gold card as well 😂

  • jj says:

    It’s quite fashionable to sneer at Bicester, but, as a provincial, I like it.

    The only real alternative is a day in London. Transport into London is much more expensive, and, sadly, you’re faced with too much evidence of crime and squalor when you’re there. Best of all, though, is the hands-free shopping. If you go to London, you have to carry your purchases from one shop to another and then lug them home on the train. In Bicester, you stroll to your car and pick things up from a smiling concierge.

    Shopping done right.

    • PeteM says:

      “you’re faced with too much evidence of crime and squalor”

      Really? I must live in a different city…

      • Mike says:

        The published statistics show @jj to be right and you to be wrong. Australia has increased it’s travel advisory to Level 2 (Level 2, “may reflect a weak law-and-order system, where violent crime is common,” explains the website, adding that the country “may lack some key public services, such as a responsive police force.”). The Mexican government has issued warnings about London, loads of other governments have done the same.

        UAE:
        The UAE embassy website also warns travellers of a “recent increase in violence and knife crime” in London, “including a number of attacks on citizens of Arab Gulf states”. It says: “We advise our citizens to take special care, especially at night, and avoid wearing valuable items that attract attention in public places”.

      • Stuart says:

        Nope, it’s definitely a good description of London. Could add more to it but it only gets the hackles up here as West/Central London/City/Canary Wharf is the universe’s epicentre of HfP.

      • jj says:

        PeteM, I’ve never been approached by a beggar in Bicester; I have in London. I have never smelled cannabis in Bicester; I have in London. I have never seen graffiti in Bicester; I have in London. I have never heard anyone tell me that they have been pickpocketed or robbed in Bicester; both have happened to friends in London. I have never witnessed a person visibly under the influence of drugs or alcohol in Bicester; I have in London, and sometimes threateningly so. I have never seen official advice warning me to be careful with my phone in Bicester; I have in London. I have never had a near-miss with a speeding rider on an illegal ebike in Bicester; I have in London.

        If you live in London and have never seen these things, do you ever open your eyes? Or have become so accustomed to petty crime and lawlessness that you don’t even notice it any longer?

  • JDB says:

    It’s unusual to see a sell note with such a high price target at 350p – only forecasting shares to fall around 6-7% and it’s higher than his target in March of 320p . It’s probably a good call though – at best difficult to see much upside, but anything related to Avios or even more specifically BA’s BAC changes seem like a side show compared to the core weakness(es) of BA.

    • Novice says:

      With stocks, (although I haven’t been in markets so long as I am not that old) I have noticed it really is time in the market and not timing the markets.

      A lot of my stocks which were green turned red for a long time and then very green again. I just hold everything and stay diamond hands. I never sell anything anymore unless I am selling seed money worth and letting it run. Basically playing with casino money in that case. Short term the stock may be heading downward but long term I think it will gain.

  • Charlie says:

    Looks like were going to have months of “told you so narrative” picking akin to Brexiteers finding any titbit of news in favour of Brexit to support their position, and likewise in reverse for Remainers.

    There are so many parts to the changes that nobody here considers, nor has anyone seen the modelling behind them. For what it’s worth, the UBS analyst won’t have seen the modelling either.

    • JDB says:

      It’s interesting that those making the most noise were so incensed that they assumed the press would pick this up and be on their side but actually articles have been quite balanced because there are very much two sides and unfortunately for the doomsayers, those willing to give negative quotes expressed them in such ridiculous language as to destroy any credibility. I don’t read any other points sites, but the newspapers have quoted other sites which aren’t nearly so negative. IAG and BA specifically have issues and I wouldn’t wish to invest, but BAC just isn’t the hit to profits issue it’s made out to be, now or next April.

      • Rob says:

        The only site with positive comments on this was a) presented to journalists by IAGL as someone to speak to for a positive comment, b) the owner has done undisclosed (to readers, not to us) consultancy for IAGL and c) in his main job IAGL is a core client – in fact he was on LinkedIn yesterday in a photo with Adam.

        If anything we should be the biggest supporters of the changes because we have more high spend business travellers (as a % of readers) than I suspect any major points site globally.

        • jj says:

          HfP may “have more high spend business travellers (as a % of readers)”, but HfP readers are a small (and probably unrepresentative) % of high spend business travellers.

          I almost always travel in business class. If the club changes mean that lounges will in future be quieter, I welcome them.

          • Rob says:

            They won’t be. See our article on Monday. Spend levels were set to create same number of elites as now.

          • Rhys says:

            They don’t. Sean Doyle has confirmed they expect membership levels to stay the same. More on Monday!

  • Paul says:

    “… Additional factors behind the downgrade include concerns about the “UK economic backdrop” and potential impacts from “changes in Avios loyalty program” on future demand, though UBS noted evidence for this last concern remains “so far unfounded.” “

  • Kingy says:

    I decided i would switch to Star Alliance as i fly ex MAN anyway and i have so many better options. Not one business flight with BA in the last 18 months. Our holiday long haul flights (inc Australia and South East Asia) with family have all been with Star Alliance carriers. I will go from a solid BA Silver every year to blue and meanwhile i’m enjoying most business flights via FRA or MUC and the LH lounges. I suppose being a Northern flyer made that decision easier but I haven’t missed transiting via LHR one bit. I have no chance of BA Silver but LH Frequent Traveller is already in the bag for 2025.

    • The real Swiss Tony says:

      i’m enjoying […] flights via FRA […] and the LH lounges

      Sorry, not buying that for one minute. And LH FTL is in no way comparable to BA Silver – indeed it’s functionally useless if you’re flying J anyway.

      • Throwawayname says:

        I agree re the limited usefulness of FTL, but, even as someone who isn’t exactly a Lufthansa fan, I can see why someone used to BA would be enjoying the switch to an airline which gets there on time, has clean lounges, manages to deliver their luggage, isn’t subject to random IT meltdowns, and can usually offer lots of alternatives in case someone does get affected by IROPS.

        The LH in-flight experience may be mediocre, but the peace of mind they deliver is in a completely different league compared to BA.

        • Mike says:

          If you are flying from Manchester then you also have Swiss, in the same group. FTL may not do much but it stops your points expiring and I got it it for a single return trip last month.

          • Throwawayname says:

            There’s also SN, which is super convenient for European connections – you can do nearly a full day’s work in England then do a little walk across the terminal at BRU (no need for running or risk of getting lost like AMS) and arrive in Madrid in time for pretty much a full-length night out.

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