Dynamic pricing for Avios redemptions

[CJD]

I actually think that if RFS is kept, allowing Avios to be redeemed for any seat on the plane actually makes sense. There’s clearly Avios demand on routes like Tokyo.

RFS is essential though, because I think there needs to be some certainty that if you earn X amount of Avios you could redeem that for X flight.

[LittleNick]

I honestly hope someone has just started a rumour for the fun of it to wind us up rather than it being an actual proposal!

[freckles]

BA Flyer IHG Stayer wrote:

Not a squeak about this on the BA flyer talk board and they would be all over this if there was a whiff of this happening.

Briefly referred to on the Capital Markets thread, but yeah strangely quiet over there

[tootsci]

I’m a newbie at all this still (have been slowly collecting Avios the last few years, but only just booked my first RFS a couple of months ago for a trip next year) but how do other major airlines operate in this regard? It seemed from my quick Google that e.g. Emirates are similar to BA so you can do what they call “Classic Rewards” i.e. RFS, or Cash + Miles i.e. Cash with Avios, and similar with Etihad “Guest Seats” and “Open Seats”.

Just wondering if BA does go to dynamic pricing whether the Amex MR points my OH is now building up might be better off diverted to Emirates or Etihad for a potential SEA trip in 2026 instead of Avios…

[executiveclubber]

freckles wrote:

BA Flyer IHG Stayer wrote:

Not a squeak about this on the BA flyer talk board and they would be all over this if there was a whiff of this happening.

Briefly referred to on the Capital Markets thread, but yeah strangely quiet over there

I intentionally haven’t raised it on flyertalk as I wanted to give us lot chance to speculatively book 2025 plans!

[The real Swiss Tony]

CJD wrote:

There’s clearly Avios demand on routes like Tokyo.

I think the demand on Tokyo is because cash fares are exceptionally high to Japan. Am looking for next summer and if you don’t want to go via China the cheapest I’ve found from the UK is £2700 on CX from Manchester. You can get that closer to £2k by starting elsewhere in Europe but obviously chew up time and additional cost getting to/from the starting point.

[aq.1988]

executiveclubber wrote:

freckles wrote:

BA Flyer IHG Stayer wrote:

Not a squeak about this on the BA flyer talk board and they would be all over this if there was a whiff of this happening.

Briefly referred to on the Capital Markets thread, but yeah strangely quiet over there

I intentionally haven’t raised it on flyertalk as I wanted to give us lot chance to speculatively book 2025 plans!

According to another post (which I have verified by also doing a dummy cancellation), is that the short haul cancellation fees are now correctly charging £35pp! The 50p fees were so useful for when you wanted more flexibility.

[Retron]

Mouse wrote:

@executiveclubber what is the source of this information please?

The source is one guy who has a pal in Waterside who says it’s happening.

https://www.headforpoints.com/2024/12/05/sas-million-point-challenge-airline-3-tarom/#comment-931958

While there’s no smoke without fire, as the saying goes, I’d have thought more useful leaks would have happened by now if it’s changing in January!

[executiveclubber]

My source is senior at BA and would be aware of these conversations. I agree some more substance would be really useful. If anyone catches any whiffs or also knows people at BA, please earn your HfP membership and get some intel!

My main questions: Will RFS remain? Will this affect partner redemptions? Will F still be bookable? Will this kill last minute great value flights eg within Europe?

[VinZ]

LD27 wrote:

Do you think BA IT could cope with dynamic pricing for Avios tickets at the moment? We’ve just got back from our South American adventures. The BA app shows the correct number of Avios and tier points for my account, since new year commenced in November. I have just logged onto the website and it gives my Avios and tier points as they were on 9 November, ie no tier points – not those I have been awarded since 1 April.

Can you imagine what will happen if at least one of the following occurs in January?

1. there is a BA sale
2. dynamic pricing for Avios tickets begins
3. LHR has a few flakes of snow

Everything will be fine!!!!

Now seriously, how can you expect LHR to be ready to face the few flakes of snow when it never snows in England? Come on!

[jj]

executiveclubber wrote:

What we know so far:
– It’s being actively worked out, not considered (2 sources at BA confirmed)
– Due to launch in January (1 comment on today’s SAS article suggests this)
…

What we also know:

– IAG loyalty delivers more profit than Aer Lingus and similar profit to Vueling.
– From an investor perspective, IAG is a well-respected and well-run organisation that would not needlessly destroy shareholder value.
– To continue to deliver profits, IAG Loyalty must continue to offer an attractive loyalty scheme.
– Most changes to the Avios scheme in recent years have been positive for consumers, including RFS pricing, improvements to the Amex voucher, introduction of the Barclays relationship, Avios subscription schemes, guaranteed seats, and Avios-only flights.
– History and logic suggest that it is exceptionally unlikely that any changes will make Avios unattractive to collect.

However, we also know:

– The value of an Avios has increased sharply due to fixed redemption rates and rising air fares.
– Some Avios use cases can create really silly outcomes for BA, such as last-minute Avios bookings on nearly full aircraft when the seat could have been sold at a huge premium.
– The low cost of cancelling Avios bookings encourages some people to behave in a way that disadvantages other both BA and other Avios collectors.

So, I would expect an an overall devaluation and closure of some loopholes, but I would also expect some benefits for collectors in other matters, such as some bargain tickets on less utilised flights. Overall, I would be utterly gobsmacked if any changes were so disadvantageous that more than 1-2% of Avios customers gave up.

I have a large stash of Avios, as my ability to collect exceeds the time I have to travel. I’m not panicking any time soon.

[Richie]

executiveclubber wrote:

My source is senior at BA and would be aware of these conversations….

Have they checked their employment agreement lately?

[BA Flyer IHG Stayer]

Retron wrote:

The source is one guy who has a pal in Waterside who says it’s happening.

https://www.headforpoints.com/2024/12/05/sas-million-point-challenge-airline-3-tarom/#comment-931958

While there’s no smoke without fire, as the saying goes, I’d have thought more useful leaks would have happened by now if it’s changing in January!

So you’re quoting Rob as a source for this? He’s written the same thing many times ever since Alex Cruz first said it was somewthing he wanted BA to do.

Problem is, as Rob has also wrtten many times, is that IAG Loyalty now controls avios and not BA.

[freckles]

@jj
That all required BA/IAGL to think and act logically in everyone’s best interests. We have plenty of evidence that doesn’t happen and they leave it up to the intern to make decisions that have wide ranging detrimental effects 😉

[Retron]

BA Flyer IHG Stayer wrote:

So you’re quoting Rob as a source for this? He’s written the same thing many times ever since Alex Cruz first said it was somewthing he wanted BA to do.

Problem is, as Rob has also wrtten many times, is that IAG Loyalty now controls avios and not BA.

Nope, not quoting Rob. Rob says BA *wants* do do it, GP (who started the rumour here by quoting his pal at Waterside) says they *will* do it – big difference!

[jj]

@freckles, I gave six ways in which BA/IAG has thought and acted logically in everyone’s best interests. Aside from some trivial edge-case devaluations, I’m not aware of any counter-examples of the intern making decisions.

We’ll see.

[JDB]

Richie wrote:

executiveclubber wrote:

My source is senior at BA and would be aware of these conversations….

Have they checked their employment agreement lately?

Exactly! I suspect that if any of this is true the person isn’t in fact very senior as senior people are usually too professional and careful with confidential, possibly market sensitive information not only not to blab, but particularly not to blab to someone sufficiently untrustworthy to post it on the internet.

[JDB]

freckles wrote:

@jj
That all required BA/IAGL to think and act logically in everyone’s best interests. We have plenty of evidence that doesn’t happen and they leave it up to the intern to make decisions that have wide ranging detrimental effects 😉

@freckles – what evidence are you offering of these major, intern type decisions? There may be decisions you don’t like/don’t suit you but BA and other IAG airlines are and have been far better managed and financially successful than other European legacy carriers over an extended period.

[Maples]

sIgN oF a dEValUAtIoN cOMinG?

[Scottpat78]

Purely selfishly for now – I am waiting to earn my next BAPP voucher to book 5 seats to JFK in the summer. I do have the Avios to book with 1 voucher instead of the preferred 2, but I’m going to sit and wait.

As mentioned up thread, availability to JFK is massive most days so I’m hoping any change won’t negatively impact me by the time I earn my 2nd voucher.

[Misty]

Also selfishly now panicking, wondering if to book another RFS for next year, even though I’m not sure where to go to, and already have three booked. All those miles just sitting there waiting to be devalued.

On the other hand was very happy to read the word ‘commentariat’ up-thread. Sounds so much better than a bunch of moaners or whatever else we are likely to be termed as.

[LD27]

@VinZ You really made me laugh! I’m en route to LHR now, about to fly to Zurich. Last time I flew to Switzerland this time of year we went to Basel. We didn’t see a flake of snow whilst we were there. Got to the airport to find the earlier flight to LHR had returned to Basel. LHR was closed because of a few flakes of snow. We had to stay an extra 2 nights before we could get back. Still didn’t see any snow in Switzerland until we went to the mountains! I’ve packed a few extra clothes this time just in case, but it doesn’t look like there is much snow around so could be the wind or some other issue that scuppers our plans!

[JDB]

@LD27 – LHR can’t really win though can they.

As with any organisation, they have to plan for what is reasonably foreseeable and LHR that plan is agreed between the airport, airlines and regulator. Zurich has more snow days than non snow days in the winter months so has vastly more people and equipment dedicated to that task. Do you think it is appropriate or, more importantly, are you willing to pay (through the passenger service charge) for massive redundancy, just in case, or is it better to plan for the expected LHR worst case.

Snow ploughs are extremely expensive to buy and they need to be stored onsite, maintained and staff trained to operate them. You then need huge numbers of people to deal with all the areas the snow ploughs can’t reach and they need training to use the right equipment and right products safely on an airfield. LHR has nearly 3 x the number of passengers and only two runways vs three at Zurich so if a runway has to be closed to be cleared of snow, given the airport is at capacity, it will inevitably cause considerable delays and cancellations. It’s likely that visibility potentially associated with the snow will also reduce landings on the open runway. How would you propose to resolve that? If you run a relatively quieter airport with half the number of movements but an extra runway, it’s a whole lot easier!

This is the current Snow Plan:-

https://www.heathrow.com/content/dam/heathrow/web/common/documents/company/team-heathrow/airside/winter-operations/Airside_SMS_Plan_AdverseWeather%20-%20Heathrow%20Snow%20Plan%20Airside%202024-25.pdf

[Go197]

Retron wrote:

The source is one guy who has a pal in Waterside who says it’s happening.

The source is one guy who _says_ he has a pal in Waterside, and another who _says_ he has a senior contact and backs up it by saying the first guy also said it.

It is all too easy to believe things like this, given the history of devaluations and a sensible desire to save value by pre-empting bad news, but in fact “What we know so far” as one commenter has put it, is nothing.

How many people converted Virgin points to Hilton when there were rumours of Virgin going out of business?

[Gordon]

If this so called guy from BA senior management actually exists, and if these discussions ever took place, the recipient should have kept his mouth shut, I hope there was no such person, and he won’t loose his job, “Loose lips sink ships”