Points purchase – better to come?

[ukpolak]

Hello – after swapping a load of MRs to Bonvoy under the recent promo, we’re still a little short for a redemption for next year.

I wanted to transfer some from my wife although it looks like the transfer tool was 404/Error until I checked just now. However it’d still leave me a little short.

No matter which permutation for purchases, the current promo on purchases seems to work out at 0.677p/point which is roughly what redemptions are going for, for the hotels and dates I have scoped out.

I wanted to ask if the current purchase promo (40% bonus) is the best they ever do, or are they likely to offer better ones in the months to come where I get more for my £?

Thank you!

[Froggee]

40% is not the best. But assuming you are only buying a small number of points to enable you to spend all your points at 0.677p-ish then don’t let the tail wag the dog and just go for it! Rob’s valuation of 0.5p is bang on in my opinion so a large redemption at a decent bit higher is a slam dunk in my view.

Historic offers as per my favourite US bloggy thing shows 50% in May-July but that has been and gone and it is normally less:

https://onemileatatime.com/deals/buy-marriott-bonvoy-points/

[BBbetter]

@ukpolak, as Froggee says, best to book now and you can always rebook if the points requirement falls.

Travel demand is generally falling in 2024 and 2025, so there are chances prices, and therefore points required also fall.

There’s a new tool Max my point that might be helpful to set alerts or you can just manually search every few days.

Am going to book everything cancellable as the small premium over prepaid will be worth it in the coming year.

[ukpolak]

Many thanks @Froggee and @BBbetter.

Interesting re the 0.5p value as I have checked a number of US Florida Marriotts for next August and they all seem to coming out at 0.7p/point with the exception of two (WDW Disney Swan/Dolphin at 0.58p/point and on the other side RC Orlando for closer to 1.5p/point), ie never close to the 0.5p floor. Anything on the Gulf Coast for 5 nights is 0.7p/point – Westins, Marriotts through to RC and even St Regis.

Also in terms of relative movement, we booked a couple of nights in NJ before Christmas at 64k points for a $645 hotel (£488) for two nights but for the same cash price if I booked today, redemption is now 80k, thereby eroding value in the redemption for booking today.

I’ll take your advice and purchase my small shortfall, book a refundable rate and check if rates change over time in my favour!

My wife is wondering why I seem to always be on XE and using calculators all the time, but it’s all in the pursuit of value 🙂

Thanks again.