Do the Avios changes make you better or worse off? We run the numbers

As we covered extensively here, British Airways has now confirmed the date that Avios earning will move to a revenue based model.

For tickets bought after 18th October, the number of Avios you earn will be driven by what you spend and your British Airways Executive Club status.

This replaces the current system which is driven by your travel class, the distance you fly and your elite status.

There was a lot of debate in our comments about who would be better off and who would lose out.

To put this to bed, we decided to test examples to different cities in different travel classes for different elite status members.

We worked out how many Avios you’d earn if you booked at BA’s cheapest current price. More importantly, we worked out the break even figure where the new scheme becomes more attractive.

The results are all over the place and its hard to say ‘this is good, this is bad’. In general:

• the break even figure is generally (but not always) higher than any leisure traveller is likely to pay, meaning that leisure travellers will generally lose out

• Gold members are worse off than Blue, Bronze and Silver members of the Executive Club due to the loss of their 100% status bonus

Our analysis only looks at non-refundable tickets. Ignore what we have published if you travel on fully flexible tickets. Refundable tickets require a separate set of calculations because they earn more Avios under the current structure. This is especially noticeable in economy.

How did we work out our numbers?

• the sample fare used is the cheapest currently on sale according to BA’s Low Fare Finder tool

• we did a dummy booking on ba.com to get a fare breakdown, allowing us to remove Air Passenger Duty, airport charges and other taxes and charges which will not earn Avios under the new structure

• we used the Avios calculator on ba.com to work out how many Avios each route would earn under the current structure – for economy flights, we assumed they were in the cheapest possible ticket bucket which earns 25% of miles flown

• we calculated the break even point by taking the current number of Avios you would earn and working out (for each elite status level) how much you would need to spend going forward – adjusted for taxes and charges – to earn the same number of Avios

• we have ignored any Avios you may earn under the new system from paying for seat selection or for excess baggage

Here’s an example of how it works:

• a flight has taxes and charges of £100

• this flight currently earns 6,000 Avios if you are a Blue member

• a Blue member will earn 6 Avios per £1 going forward

• the breakeven figure is therefore (6,000 Avios / 6 = £1,000 + £100 of taxes added back) £1,100

• a Blue member would be better off under the new structure if this particular flight cost over £1,100, and worse off if it cost less.

Let’s get into our examples. The first one is a bit ‘wordy’ but the rest are short and sweet:

London to New York

This is a short route with relatively high fares, which means the new structure should work well.

Club World (business)

A quick look at BA’s Low Fare Finder tool shows that return Club World flights to New York are currently selling for between £1,945 to £3,734. (Recent sales have dropped to below £1,300, so this is still relatively high.)

I picked a random date in one of the cheap months and it priced through to £1,981, of which it turns out £299 is government and airport taxes. This leaves £1,682 of eligible Avios-earning spend.

Under the new scheme, you would earn on a £1,981 ticket:

• 10,092 Avios if you are a Blue member (currently 10,374)
• 11,774 Avios as Bronze (currently 12,104)
• 13,456 Avios as Silver (currently 13,832)
• 15,138 Avios as Gold (currently 17,290)

In order to earn the same number of Avios as under the mileage-based scheme, you would therefore have to spend:

• £2,028 as a Blue member
• £2,028 as a Bronze member
• £2,028 as a Silver member
• £2,220 as a Gold member

If you would typically pay more than £2,028 to fly to New York in non-refundable Business Class on BA, you will be better off going forward. If you are more likely to be on a £1,299 sale fare, you will lose out.

World Traveller (economy)

Low Fare Finder shows that return economy flights to New York are currently selling for between £360 and £796.

I picked a random date in one of the cheap months and it priced through to £396, of which it turns out £195 is government and airport taxes. That leaves just £201 of the base fare and carrier surcharges as eligible Avios-earning spend.

Under the new scheme, you would earn:

• 1,206 Avios if you are a Blue member (currently 1,730)
• 1,407 Avios as Bronze (currently 3,460)
• 1,608 Avios as Silver (currently 5,188)
• 1,809 Avios as Gold (currently 8,646)

(The reason that a Gold earns so much at present is because of the status bonus. This gets you 100% of mileage flown, on top of the 25% of mileage flown which you earn in discount economy.)

In order to earn the same number of Avios as under the mileage-based scheme, you would therefore have to spend:

• £483 as a Blue member
• £689 as a Bronze member
• £843 as a Silver member
• £1,155 as a Gold member

I doubt many leisure travellers spend £843, or £1,155 for Gold, on an economy ticket to New York, which is the point at which they are better off from October.

In the following examples we’ve put the results into a table to save space:

Geneva

Club Europe (business)

The lowest monthly fares in business class are currently between £282 and £368.

Based on a £282 fare, you have £206 of Avios-eligible spend and £76 of taxes and charges.

Status tier	Avios earned (current)	Avios earned at £282 (future)	Break even cost
Blue	1,500	1,236	£326
Bronze	1,750	1,442	£326
Silver	2,000	1,648	£326
Gold	2,500	1,854	£353

This isn’t bad – £326 to £353 is a relatively low break even figure here for Club Europe and most passengers will therefore be better off going forward.

Euro Traveller (economy)

The lowest hand-baggage-only fares per month are currently between £80 and £122.

Clicking through in one of the cheapest months, the overall Avios-eligible base fare is just £20 whilst taxes and airport charges are £60 from Gatwick.

Status tier	Avios earned (current)	Avios earned at £80 (future)	Break even cost
Blue	250	120	£101
Bronze	500	140	£131
Silver	750	160	£153
Gold	1,250	180	£198

A Blue members would arguably struggle to pay less than £101 on most dates so would come out ahead. It gets trickier for a Gold who would need to pay over £200 to be better off from October, although there are many dates in the ski season where you can pay far more than this.

Madrid

Club Europe

The lowest BA fares to Madrid in business class are currently £338 return according to Low Fare Finder.

I found a fare for £338 return of which £66 was taxes and airport charges. This leaves £272 as the Avios-eligible portion.

Status tier	Avios earned (current)	Avios earned at £338 (future)	Break even cost
Blue	2,358	1,632	£459
Bronze	2,752	1,904	£459
Silver	3,144	2,176	£459
Gold	3,930	2,448	£502

As this is a longer route that Geneva, the current distance-based system is proportionately more generous. £459 is a high bar for a leisure traveller to come out better under the new system.

Euro Traveller

In economy, the lowest monthly fares for the year ahead are between £74 and £172 depending on season.

Clicking through, I found a return trip for £72. Only £21 of this is the Avios-earning fare, with the remaining £51 comprising taxes and airport fees.

Status tier	Avios earned (current)	Avios earned at £72 (future)	Break even cost
Blue	394	126	£116
Bronze	788	147	£163
Silver	1,180	168	£198
Gold	1,966	189	£269

I doubt there are many Gold members paying over £269 for economy flights to Madrid and so coming out ahead in the future. A Blue member, on the other hand, is likely to come out better under the new structure given a break even figure of just £116.

Remember that the ‘current’ figure is for a non-refundable economy ticket. A fully flexible economy ticket currently earns a Gold member 3,144 Avios and the break even point is £400. This is easy to achieve, meaning that such travellers will be better off.

Singapore

Let’s take a look at a very long haul route. BA’s Low Fare Finder tool shows that return Club World flights to Singapore are currently selling for between £3,087 and £4,312. World Traveller Plus / Premium Economy will set you back £1,519 to £2,373.

Club World

In business, the lowest fare for the next 12 months is £3,087 return. This is very high by historic norms, of course.

This includes £292 of taxes and charges, leaving an Avios-earning base fare of £2,795. Let’s see what you earn now and from 18th October if you pay the cheapest possible £3,087 return, and what you’d need to pay to be better off:

Status tier	Avios earned (current)	Avios earned at £3,087 (future)	Break even cost
Blue	20,292	16,770	£3,674
Bronze	23,674	19,565	£3,674
Silver	27,056	22,360	£3,674
Gold	33,820	25,155	£4,049

Again, a Gold member has the highest break even figure. They would need to spend over £4,049 return on a non-refundable ticket in Club World to Singapore before they were better off under the new earning rates.

£3,674 seems a high break even level for everyone else, but you need to remember that it is impossible to book BA on this route for less than £3,087 at present.

World Traveller Plus (premium economy)

The lowest monthly fare to Singapore currently available in World Traveller Plus is £1,519.

Of this, £292 represents taxes and charges leaving an Avios-eligible base fare of £1,227. Here is what you earn based on paying £1,519 return and the amount you would need to pay to be better off in the future:

Status tier	Avios earned (current)	Avios earned at £1,519 (future)	Break even cost
Blue	13,528	7,362	£2,546
Bronze	16,910	8,589	£2,707
Silver	20,292	9,816	£2,828
Gold	27,056	11,043	£3,298

Depending on status, you’d need to be paying over £2,546 (Blue) to £3,298 (Gold) for your non-refundable World Traveller Plus ticket to Singapore before you were better off. I doubt there are many people spending this much unless travelling for business.

The break even point would be higher for anyone who travels on flexible World Traveller Plus tickets because such tickets earn more than a non-refundable one under the current structure.

Dubai

Club World

Flight prices to Dubai are remarkably consistent throughout the year, with the lowest monthly fare ranging between £2,413 and £2,429.

I found a flight for £2,412 return, of which you can earn Avios on £2,140. The remaining £272 is taxes and charges.

Status tier	Avios earned (current)	Avios earned at £2,412 (future)	Break even cost
Blue	10,260	12,840	£1,982
Bronze	11,970	14,980	£1,982
Silver	13,680	17,120	£1,982
Gold	17,100	19,260	£2,172

As a shorter route, Dubai doesn’t earn too highly under the current system. Given that BA’s cheapest ticket is currently £2,412, everyone will be better off – although pre-covid it was common to see BA fares around £1,500 in sale periods.

The break even point would be higher for anyone who would normally travel on a flexible Club World ticket because such a ticket earns more than a non-refundable one under the current structure.

World Traveller

Economy tickets to Dubai are similarly flat across the year, hovering between £502 and £577.

I found a flight for £502 return, of which £334 is the Avios-earning portion and £168 represents taxes and charges.

Status tier	Avios earned (current)	Avios earned at £502 (future)	Break even cost
Blue	1,710	2,004	£453
Bronze	3,420	2,338	£656
Silver	5,130	2,672	£809
Gold	8,550	3,006	£1,118

A Blue member can’t help but be better off here, given that BA isn’t selling any economy tickets to Dubai for less than the £453 break even point over the next 12 months.

£1,118 is a high bar for a Gold member to spend in non-refundable economy, especially as Lufthansa / SWISS often sell UK to Dubai for £1,299 in business class in sales.

Conclusion

Unsurprisingly when moving from a system driven by distance to one based on cost, people who pay most for their tickets are the big winners.

That said, as the tables above show, it’s not that simple. There are some short routes with high fares where you can’t (at current fare levels) be any worse off under the new structure, which is good news.

In general if you currently pay high fares to fly on short routes, you have a good chance of being better off.

If you currently pay low fares to fly on long routes, you have a good chance of being worse off.

(I’d point out that the fare examples we’ve used above are higher than long term averages, and that BA is not currently running a sale. If we see fares drop back to pre-pandemic levels next year then more people will be worse off under the new structure. We recently saw the return of £1,300 sale pricing in Club World to New York.)

If you are currently a Gold member, you have a higher chance of being worse off due to the loss of your current 100% status bonus.

And remember ….

Don’t forget that:

• at 3 Avios per £1 spent, on leisure trips you may earn more Avios when you buy a BA flight on a British Airways American Express Premium Plus credit card than you get from flying it!

• it’s also possible that you could earn more Avios from your hotel or car hire at your destination than from your flight

• many travellers are more motivated to earn tier points towards Executive Club status than Avios from their flights, and would arguably be happy earning zero Avios as long as their tier points kept flowing

• you can continue to earn Avios based on distance flown by crediting your flight to Qatar Airways Privilege Club (and transferring them back to BA), by booking via BA Holidays or any sort of package holiday or – for a codeshare flight – booking via another airline

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How to earn Avios from UK credit cards (September 2024)

As a reminder, there are various ways of earning Avios points from UK credit cards.  Many cards also have generous sign-up bonuses!

In February 2022, Barclaycard launched two exciting new Barclaycard Avios Mastercard cards with a bonus of up to 25,000 Avios. You can apply here.

SPECIAL OFFER: Until 26th September 2024, sign up for FREE Barclaycard Avios Mastercard and you will receive a sign-up bonus of 10,000 Avios. This is double the usual bonus! You only need to spend £1,000 within 90 days. Our full review is here. Click here to apply.

You qualify for the bonus on these cards even if you have a British Airways American Express card:

There are two official British Airways American Express cards with attractive sign-up bonuses:

You can also get generous sign-up bonuses by applying for American Express cards which earn Membership Rewards points. These points convert at 1:1 into Avios.

Run your own business?

We recommend Capital on Tap for limited companies. You earn 1 Avios per £1 which is impressive for a Visa card, along with a sign-up bonus worth 10,500 Avios.

There is also a British Airways American Express card for small businesses:

There are also generous bonuses on the two American Express Business cards, with the points converting at 1:1 into Avios. These cards are open to sole traders as well as limited companies.

Click here to read our detailed summary of all UK credit cards which earn Avios. This includes both personal and small business cards.