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Brunchgate: How many flyers are impacted by BA’s morning and evening meal changes?

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Our articles on the new British Airways long-haul brunch and late evening meal changes this week caused a lot of discussion.

Oliver Ranson of Airline Revenue Economics produced an interesting analysis on the changes for his Substack newsletter and I thought it would benefit from a wider audience.

You can see other articles by Oliver, and sign up to receive Oliver’s future articles by email, here. Click ‘No thanks’ on that page to bypass the sign-up page if you just want to read his other content.

We have edited this article slightly from its original format and any errors or typos may be ours. Over to Oliver ….

British Airways brunch and late evening meal changes

As HfP covered this week, British Airways is now offering a brunch service on longhaul flights leaving before 11.29am. The menus look bonkers. As the HfP article showed, you will get:

  • a starter, like smoked salmon, soup or artichoke
  • a breakfast course like waffles or sausage, mushrooms and hash browns
  • chocolate cake, coffee and liqueurs

You can wash your breakfast down with a nice glass of red or white wine if you wish.

As well as the rather strange menu choices, BA has decided that any flight scheduled to leave before 11.29am will get this brunch menu. This choice looks far too late.

To see why, consider Monday’s BA255 flight to Bridgetown, Barbados. Scheduled to depart at 11.25am, this flight will have featured brunch. Operated by Boeing 787-10 G-ZBLG, the flight left more or less on time and was airborne by 11.45am.

It will take the crew about an hour to get everything ready for the service. So passengers will start to eat around 12.45pm. This is time for the full lunch, not brunch. If the flight had been delayed, which is not unusual at Heathrow, passengers would be eating their waffles or sausages at 1pm, 2pm or later.

For the many passengers connecting from Europe, which is generally one hour ahead of London, the brunch service is even less suitable.

British Airways brunch and late evening meal changes

Why has British Airways chosen this model?

Why has BA chosen this bizarre model? Obviously it is down to cost control. But why is the cutover point at 11.29am? I have reverse-engineered their decision, looking at outbound flights from Heathrow.

For simplicity, I have ignored inbound flights and long-haul flights from Gatwick.

Departures leaving before 10.00am might be suitable candidates for brunch. Unfortunately BA simply does not have many long-haul flights leaving that early.

I took the airline’s schedule for 6th November from OAG Schedule Analyser and identified all the long-haul flights departing from Heathrow.

The table below shows that only 1% to 2% of the airline’s long-haul First, Club World and World Traveller Plus (premium economy) capacity departs before 9.00am. In fact, there is just one flight – the early departure to New York JFK.

British Airways departures long haul by time

As you can see, just 14% of First seats and 11.8% of Club World and World Traveller Plus seats are scheduled to leave before 10am.

However, 25% of First seats and 20.7% of Club World and World Traveller Plus seats leave before the 11.29am cut-off.

BA’s reasoning is now arguably clear. A business case to save money by serving brunch was proposed, and management has pushed the service time back until the savings looked good enough. 20% of passengers was their magic number.

At the other end of the day BA is cutting costs too. It is only offering a light meal on flights that leave after 9.00pm. The table compiled from OAG data shows that this change affects 10.5% of First passengers and 12.2% of Club World and World Traveller Plus travellers.

Together, the cost cutting is expected to impact almost exactly one third of premium cabin travellers flying from Heathrow.

A beautiful number like one third is too much of a co-incidence for me to ignore. This feels like a service change designed by accountants.

British Airways brunch and late evening meal changes

Which routes are impacted by these changes?

Choice – in terms of your ability to choose an alternative BA departure with a full meal service – will be eliminated on nine out of 56 long-haul routes on the sample date I looked at.

Six routes will be brunch only: Dallas Fort Worth, Tokyo Haneda, Houston, Lagos, Nassau and Nairobi. On my sample date there are no alternative departures to these cities with a full meal service.

Three routes are only scheduled at times with the late light meal: Abuja, Abu Dhabi and Santiago. Again, on the date I picked there was no alternative BA flight available.

Nine routes will have a choice of brunch or a full meal service depending on which flight you pick. These are Bridgetown, Mumbai, Boston, Delhi, New York Newark, New York JFK, Los Angeles, Miami and Chicago.

Four routes will have a choice of a late light meal or a full meal service depending on which flight you pick. These are Cape Town, Dubai, Johannesburg and Singapore.

All remaining long haul routes fall exclusively into the noon to 9pm window where a standard full meal will be offered.

(Remember that I have looked at one day only. Some routes like Tokyo Haneda have multiple flights on certain days of the week.)

Things might not be so bad on short flights like Abuja and Abu Dhabi. Nairobi will be a disaster as the flight leaves early-ish at 9.45am but due to the long 8:50 flying time and late 9.35pm arrival it completely fills the day. Passengers will want more than a poached egg on toast.

I would hope that the ultra-long flights to Santiago, Singapore and South Africa are fully catered but I will not be surprised if they are not. [HfP edit – we understand that South Africa flights ARE impacted by the reduced catering.]

Overall, I expect the new brunch menu to be a disaster and it will hopefully be a matter of months before BA cancels it. It is not without form here. When a complex trolley based service was introduced in 2018 (image below) it took hours for the service to complete and the idea was terminated quickly.

British Airways brunch and late evening meal changes

Technology is meant to bring us fully personalised airline services

The prognosis for modern airline retailing is terrible. Consider these two conclusions:

  • The 11.29am cut-off point and the resulting optimistic-case 12.45pm service delivery time shows that BA decision-makers either do not understand or do not think through what the service will actually be like in practice
  • The fact that exactly one-third of passengers are impacted shows that service changes are probably designed by or for accountants, not the travelling public

When BA is taking decisions like this, how are they supposed to operate effectively in an offer-order retailing environment?

(HfP edit: ‘offer-order’ is the technical term for the move to fully personalised airline retailing. In theory ba.com would learn from your travel history and intelligently suggest relevant flights and non-flight ancilliaries during the booking flow. Whilst this sounds pretty basic, it is still a big step forward from the current position where airlines still email me asking if I need a hotel in London, despite my trip originally starting here and my loyalty account having a London address on it.)

The standard industry response would be to say that offer-order will be entirely driven by algorithms so it will all be OK. Some people would even say that a simply bad product like BA’s brunch service would not be designed in the offer-order world because data would show passengers would not want it. This misses the point.

Algorithms are designed and monitored according to the priorities of their human controllers. When these priorities are messed up, as the case of brunch shows they will be, the algorithms will simply not work.

Offer-order is seen by airlines mainly as a technical challenge. When it comes to the technical matters I am sure that British Airways’ solutions will be second to none. After all, they have the might of travel IT giant Amadeus behind them. Since they are an Amadeus “driver customer” it is fair to say that what goes down at British Airways will influence the industry.

Unfortunately the case of brunch suggests that the future of offer-order at British Airways may be a disaster because they do not understand what their passengers want. Since BA’s approach to the technology will influence almost every other airline, the future of airline retailing looks dismal for all passengers.

There is a simple solution. Airlines need to train their staff to think like passengers.

Managers should fly several times a year as commercial passengers. They should pay on their own credit card and reclaim expenses like millions of business travellers do.

Unfortunately we all know this will not happen. To fly. To starve.

You can see other articles from Airline Revenue Economics, and sign up to receive future articles by email, here.

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Comments (413)

This article is closed to new comments. Feel free to ask your question in the HfP forums.

  • BJ says:
    24 Oct24 October 18:25

    Why these changes are causing such a song and dance are beyond me. Qatar Airways offers both various Asian and Western breakfast and dinner options on
    flights departing Doha around 2am, washed down with whatever one wishes from lemon mint to a double malt. Why no song and dance about that? Besides, forgetting airlines, the concepts of brunch or even all day breakfast is hardly novel, and is even rather populae. So what’s the big deal? Eating certain types of food at certain times of the day is a very Western concept, I’ve met quite a few people over the years from various parts of the world who have commented on this, finding the concept a bit a bit odd or even crazy.

    • Cicero says:
      24 Oct24 October 18:28

      Because we read the article. No one would be complaining if BA was offering a choice.

      • BJ says:
        24 Oct24 October 19:39

        BA is offering a choice, you can take it or leave it, you can pick and choose what they give you, you can pre-order a special meal and a regular one too if that’s returned. Presumanly pre-flight dining for some routes in the evening still exists too. You can eat in lounge, you can pack sabdwiches, you can go to a restaurant before departure. You can fast and/or sleep. There is plenty of choice. Bottom line, the usual complaint here is that BA food is so bad anyway, what difference does it make if they mix that up a bit, it’s still bad.

        • Alex G says:
          24 Oct24 October 19:44

          … or you can fly with a decent airline. You (probably) have a choice.

          • BJ says:
            24 Oct24 October 20:02

            Most that complain about BA are probably tge same bunch that crave the status matches and every opportunity to earn an extra 50 avios. Personally I’ve always been of the view that differences between airlines are overplayed. While some are better than others I’ve never considered the differences great enough to trump schedule and fare when choosing between them

        • Cicero says:
          24 Oct24 October 22:27

          That’s not the choice you said Qatar offered. Keep up.

          • BJ says:
            25 Oct25 October 05:31

            Qatar was just an example, as you’ll see later I comment that F&B issues occur across many airlines.

    • TGLoyalty says:
      24 Oct24 October 18:33

      Tomorrows article will probably be telling you BA have a sale on 🤣

    • HH says:
      24 Oct24 October 19:11

      I don’t know what’s more delusional – this comment likening the change to QR’s offering, or the comment on page 5 suggesting cabin crew will resign over the change…

      • Richie says:
        24 Oct24 October 19:22

        Great post HH!

      • BJ says:
        24 Oct24 October 19:49

        Yeah, I forgot, perhaps @JDB can remind me whether it wasc3 or 4 items QR was missing on one breakfast service. The comparison with QR is neither here nor there, the real point is that across airlines it is not unusual to encounter real and perceived oddities in F&B, BA is not alone, was not the first and will not be the last. IMO the flapjack that was significantly smaller than the BA gold card was the greater debacle than this.

        • Londonsteve says:
          25 Oct25 October 18:17

          I’m not sure it was. Alternatives offered now or in the past were 10g of salted pretzels, baked corn or the tiny infamous banana cake. Compared to those the flapjack was probably the best of the lot. All tiny, all perfunctory (along with the thimble sized bottles of Harrogate Spring – why not at least 330ml which might quench thirst and be less of a waste of plastic?). These were only ever about being able to advertise ‘free refreshments’ on the booking site to induce a few passengers to choose BA versus the low cost competition, while probably envisaging a free sandwich and GnT as it was a few years back. For me, the free drink was a genuine inducement to book BA even though it cost them probably 30 pence. The perceived value was at least as high as the current buy on board menu price if not higher because no money changed hands and the crew were always happy to provide another if you were thirsty.

      • Roy says:
        24 Oct24 October 23:16

        Cabin crew may well resign if all that have to eat is left over pancakes and waffles!

        (Only half joking )

    • JDB says:
      24 Oct24 October 23:54

      @BJ – be careful you naughty contrarian, one isn’t allowed to disagree with @Aston100 apparently.

      • BJ says:
        25 Oct25 October 05:49

        🙂

        It’s a bit frustrating sometimes when readers take comments verbatim, and cannot read between the lines or grasp the bigger picture. The reason I often use Qatar Airways as a comparable example is not to rubbish QR as some seem to think but rather because it is widely perceived as being great and a good yardstick. My point is more that even amongst the brtter options things are not always perfect and can be inconsistent. As it happens Qatar Airways is currently first choice for both my partner and I heading East, that wouldn’t be the case if I were interested in rubbishing them as some seem to think.

  • memesweeper says:
    24 Oct24 October 20:36

    @Rob you’ve mentioned a few times you’ve asked BA managers if they are paid to fly with the competition, and the answer is ‘no’.

    I worked for a gambling company for many years. Head office managers were encouraged to periodically take up front-line positions once every month or two (say, call centre, or food and beverage — unfortunately not all did) and were also encouraged, if in a new town, to visit a competitors casino or bingo hall. We could expense the reasonable costs of a competitor visit, in return for submitting a mystery-customer type survey. Brilliant approaches for keeping the decision makers close to the customer experience.

    Yes, as a business, we were focussed on reducing operational costs, but we also knew in some places the choice of tea bag vendor was critical to customer experience, and, as a result, we didn’t cut those things in the places that mattered.

  • @mkcol says:
    24 Oct24 October 20:47

    Looking at being rolled back already?

    Perhaps….

    https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2024/10/24/british-airways-is-looking-to-rollback-unpopular-catering-changes-after-being-deluged-with-complaints-from-passengers-and-staff/

    • TGLoyalty says:
      24 Oct24 October 20:51

      I think the brunch vs lunch timing will be changed for sure.

    • Roy says:
      24 Oct24 October 23:21

      My favourite bit of that article is the clam that BA “now says that it cannot make any changes until it has received enough negative feedback.”

      LOL

      Also claims news of “adjustments” to the new dining will be coming next week. I guess thet must be confident of receiving enough negative feedback by the then, then 😀

  • Oliver Ranson says:
    24 Oct24 October 21:32

    Thanks for reading and commenting everyone. I am glad that you all enjoyed it. 🙂

    • TGLoyalty says:
      24 Oct24 October 22:10

      I think there’s still some inaccuracies

      What’s the percentage without the excluded flights over 12 hours? Knocks 2-3% out

      Which departures have/had breakfast anyway I’d assume those going around 9:30 were breakfast flights anyway. Knocks about 7-8% of seats out of your analysis

  • MT says:
    24 Oct24 October 22:08

    I do wish some companies learned to control their accountants. The shareholder is not always right, quite the opposite, they know very little and need to be led by the business.

    Cost cuttings need to come naturally over time as new technologies create opportunities to save money.

  • David Hawkins says:
    24 Oct24 October 22:46

    I wonder why British Airways is still operating. I travel regularly between my home in Berlin and London. I am now only using easyJet here’s why. I wanted to travel from Heathrow to BER and tried to book a business class seat with part payment using Avios but the booking system crashed and stole my Avios points. It took six emails to the absolutely dreadful “customer service” to get my 20,000 points returned.
    So I tried booking a business class flight from London City to BER. The full cost of this short flight was over £300. The departure was slightly late and when we waited to board we were subject to increasingly aggressive rants from the boarding agent demanding that we put our carry on bags in the hold. The evening meal was beyond disgusting. Why would I pay for a full cost fare for “service” that is consistently worse than easyJet or even Ryanair ? The answer is I won’t. easyJet Plus gives me most of the “business class” benefits I need for a fraction of the cost. easyJet’s booking system has never crashed. When I travel to Greece Aegean offer me gourmet catering and a professional cabin crew for a reasonable price.
    So I repeat my genuine question “If there is any alternative airline why would anyone choose the consistently dreadful BA ?”

    • LittleNick says:
      24 Oct24 October 23:05

      Seems you were very unlucky with the food onboard CE. Just to contrast I have done 4 CE flights this year, food was nice enough, service was fine. However mine were all avios redemption fares (not to be confused with part pay with avios which I don’t recommend bar small amounts)

    • Roy says:
      24 Oct24 October 23:43

      easyJet may be fine when it works, but when something goes wrong you’re on your own.

      I remember being booked on the late flight back from Hamburg to London on a Friday night, which ended up being cancelled. The easyJet ticket office in the terminal was closed, with a sign giving a number to call

      Calling that number gave a message saying that customer services was closed, and to go to the website. The trouble was, you couldn’t do anything on the website if your booking wasn’t direct with easyJet (mine was through the corporate travel agent).

      A whole plane load of people were snaking. across the terminal queuing for an unstaffed easyJet desk. Meanwhile I sat down, booked a hotel and turn took the S Bahn back into London

      I don’t remember what happened about the flight home but I think it was looking unlikely easyJet would be able to rebook me on Saturday so I think I probably ended up having to book a new flight on BA or Eurowings.

    • Londonsteve says:
      25 Oct25 October 18:31

      The short answer to why they’re still flying (or rather, prospering) is the fact that increasingly they offer the only direct flight from Heathrow. Any available slots tend to be hoovered up by the ME3 to offer yet another flight to Doha, Dubai and Abu Dhabi, the barrier to entry at Heathrow is absolutely massive and slots at desirable times are largely completely unavailable at any price. Heathrow also has a very wealthy catchment area and BA can charge like a wounded rhino knowing that its target customer base of well-off west Londoners and western Home Counties inhabitants will pay it. Traffic is so bad around London and public transport so expensive that the perceived inconvenience of flying from another airport keeps people booking from Heathrow, even if the flight from an alternative airport may be much cheaper.

      If Heathrow had 4 runways and slots were relatively easy to get, BA would either drown beneath the weight of competition, or more likely, they’d seriously up their game to compete and would have thinner margins as a consequence.

      Expert often cite the fact that national carriers can have an even larger share of slots at some European hub airports like CDG, AMS and FRA, what they don’t add is that none of these airports are so slot constrained a competitor can’t appear on the market if they want a piece of the action. These national carriers have expanded into available empty space offering a variety of lower magin routes and denser scheduled you often don’t see at Heathrow, as opposed to sitting on a monopoly nobody can realistically challenge.

  • PH says:
    24 Oct24 October 22:55

    Interesting analysis but not sure I follow why questionable decisions about in-flight meals in premium cabins means that a personalised approach to ecommerce is bound to fail. Surely, like all good big businesses / borderline bureaucracies, these departments work in strict siloes and only interact at the office Christmas party.

  • PH says:
    24 Oct24 October 22:58

    This whole thing feels like a storm in a teacup to me. I’m sure it’s generating incredible site metrics as flying hobbyists rage about it but impact will be rather more limited in the real world. If the US economy doesn’t soften per some predictions, it will probably be scrapped anyway.

    • Jay says:
      25 Oct25 October 01:29

      Wow BJ. Walk away, because very little of what you say makes logical sense.

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