Book reward flight or wait for Black Friday?

[JohnBart]

I have a 2-4-1 voucher and looking at MAN-MCO next August
It will be 65k points and £1k for PE return
This year there was still reward seats left in January so is it worth the risk of not booking and waiting for a 33% off points offer like last November

Choices are
1. Book now and keep the booking, no risk of losing availability
2. Wait and book in Nov, increased risk of no availability
3. Book now, if 33% offer comes along and availability is strong then cancel for £60 and rebook for 43k points

WWYD?

[davefl]

Ask yourself if your value of 22k points is worth £60.

How difficult is it for you to obtain 22k points in the future and what would the cost be