IAG ‘to make a third €1.5bn offer for [airline] Norwegian’

Spanish newspaper Expansion reported yesterday (see here, Chrome can translate) that BA’s parent company, IAG, is to make a third offer for Norwegian.

This will value the airline at 330 NOK per share, giving the equity a total valuation of €1.52bn.  This is a 31% premium to the share price last Friday although, as Norwegian carries a huge amount of debt, the actual premium to the Enterprise Value of the business is much lower.

Since the Norwegian CEO controls 27% of the company, the decision will in reality rest with him.  With the oil price remaining fairly high by recent standards, Norwegian will face increasing pressure from its lenders.

Whilst Norwegian has said that other airlines have expressed interest, I would be less certain.

As IAG is likely to be a more conservative owner of the company – and may well close down the long-haul operations entirely to free up aircraft for LEVEL, BA, Iberia and Aer Lingus – Air France KLM and Lufthansa might be happier to sit it out and reap the benefits of reduced competition without having to spend any money of their own.

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