The madness continues …. the Iberia ‘90,000 Avios for £200’ deal ends tonight. Let’s do the maths.

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In all of the years I’ve been running Head for Points, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a deal get as much attention – globally – as the Iberia ‘90,000 Avios for booking 10 flights you don’t need to fly’ offer this weekend.

We’ve certainly had good Tesco Direct deals in the past which were more generous, such as 2,400 Avios (1,000 Clubcard points) for a £10 printer ink which you could resell on eBay.  These were glitches and got no attention outside the UK.  This deal is NOT a mistake – Iberia has been keen to tell us that! – and it is getting huge amounts of traction across the world.

You can book the Iberia deal here if you still want to jump in or find out more.

To summarise:

  • You get 9,000 Avios for every Iberia, Iberia Express or Air Nostrum flight you book by 11pm UK time on Sunday
  • You can earn up to 90,000 Avios per Iberia Plus account
  • You must book on iberia.com
  • Your booking must include your Iberia Plus frequent flyer number
  • Your 9,000 bonus Avios will arrive within 10 days
  • Iberia has confirmed that you do not have to take the flights – you won’t lose the Avios if you don’t
  • One-way flights work fine

So …. if you can find 10 cheap one-way flights on iberia.com for €25 each (Santander to or from Madrid still had availability at that price last night, obviously prices are lowest in Winter) then you are getting 90,000 Avios cheaply.

There are restrictions on using these Avios and I STRONGLY recommend reading my article from yesterday here before booking.

Iberia 90000 Avios

Let’s put the deal in context

I am guessing that between 50,000 and 100,000 seats will be booked under this promotion.  If you think that sounds high, remember that it only requires 5,000 to 10,000 people to book their full quota to hit that number.  You also need to remember that non-UK frequent flyer sites have been going crazy over this deal too – virtually all of them, I have to say, giving less focus to the potential downside risks than we have.

What would 100,000 booked seats mean?

Iberia Group carries 85,000 passengers per day, so this equates to over one full day of passenger numbers!

If you assume all of the bookings are for Q4 2018 and Q1 2019, as that is when fares are cheapest, it will add 0.6% to Iberia’s load factor for those two quarters (management bonuses all round!)

If Iberia pays 0.75p per Avios to Avios Group (which is my best guess) then it will have to hand over £6,750,000 to AGL

Assuming an average ticket price of £20, Iberia will therefore lose £4,750,000, albeit IAG overall sees no loss

The promotion seems to have wiped out every single Iberia seat priced at under €20 for the next 12 months, and a large proportion of those priced under €25

Iberia will see a disproportionately high number of ‘no shows’ over the next year which could have a longer term impact on planning as they will lose track of the ‘genuine’ no show rate which is how they decide how much they can oversell a flight

It is all very odd and, frankly, probably beyond anything that Iberia thought would happen.  There will be some interesting discussions in Madrid on Monday.  Iberia cannot realistically go back on the deal, however, given that it briefed various websites including Head for Points on Friday about how the offer worked.

You can book via the special offer page here if you still want to give it a go before 11pm tonight.  (I’m saying 11pm because that is midnight in Spain and I think Iberia will use that as the closing time.)

(Want to earn more Avios?  Click here to visit our home page for the latest articles on earning and spending your Avios points and click here to see how to earn more Avios from current offers and promotions.)

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Comments

  1. Possibly a silly question – I’ve logged in to my Iberia+ account but can’t seem to work out how to make redemption hotel bookings??

  2. Robert says:

    Well done to those that have managed to book 1o flights with IB’s horrendous website.

    i give up…

  3. I am puzzled by the comments about not redeeming IB Avios on BA flights. I have just done a search on ib.com and I can see and book (if I had the Avios) a BA flight from Spain to the UK with exactly the same Avios and taxes as on ba.com.

    • No problems redeeming IB Avios on BA, except for short haul where you don’t get Reward Flight Saver tax capping. Problems are with other partners, where there are a) no changes or refunds and b) a requirement to book a return.

      • the real harry1 says:

        you mean we can redeem on IB on BA flights out to place in the sun?

        LHR-place in the sun & back?

        just without RFS fees?

        news to me

  4. Well I’ve took the plunge and booked 10 sectors each for myself and my wife so fingers crossed for 90,000 each.

    Quick question – I booked most of the flights from the offer landing page but some via the homepage – will this make any difference to actually receiving the bonus as I’ve read on another website that you have to use the landing page specific to this offer?

    Cheers and fingers crossed to everyone who has took the plunge that this works out!!

    • Gumshoe says:

      In Friday’s article Rob expressly says you can book from any page on iberia.com, not just the offer landing page.

  5. Can anyone confirm that I can make the booking for all passengers on one booking as long as I add their individual IB Plus numbers? The following from the T&Cs makes me think so:

    “For example, if a customer purchases tickets on Iberia.com for three people to fly from Seville to Madrid and two of the people are identified as Iberia Plus members during the purchase process, 9,000 Avios will be credited to both of these people within 10 days of the purchase.”

  6. Hi, booked 4 this morning. Just booked another one and l logged out to do something and now i can’t log back in! Tried forgotten password, but it is not responding. I’ve tried on chrome, firefox and IE browsers, but all failed. Anyone else experiencing problems?

    • I had various problems over the last few days. Each time, clearing cache/cookies sorted it (or switching browsers).

  7. So this may be a silly idea, but I’m curious what would happen if you transfer the points out via aer club or vuelling and then on to BA and then closed the intermediary account (not the IBERIA account, the aer club / vuelling one). Presumably, if the transfer works, you could scream GDPR to get the intermediate account completely wiped so if Iberia tried to claw back the avios there would be no link back to your BAEC account? I.e. there would be no information held about you by the intermediary at all.

    Of course that’s *if* you can transfer them out at all, and I suspect that will depend on their systems.

    • the real harry1 says:

      it’s the golden question

      IB say these Avios can’t be transferred out, pure & simple

      • the real harry1 says:

        I suggest we all transfer them out the minute they land in the a/c 🙂

    • Not sure GDPR would help you much.. if I were IAG I would argue that the information is needed for audit and anti-fraud purposes…you can’t ask your bank to forget your debts after all 🙂

  8. Slightly OT: Is anyone else seeing problems booking Miami redemptions via BA? I can see there’s availability but it errors when trying to book. Seems to have been like that for several weeks, possibly since the additional Miami flight was added.

    Looks like its going to need a phone call.

  9. Robman says:

    How can I get the website to price in Pounds, rather than Euros?

    • Peter K says:

      As it’s a Spanish website and they use euros I imagine you can’t. You need to factor in the cost for paying in Euros into the calculation.

      • Something caused it to charge me in pounds, probably UK browser settings, for all flights including the domestic Spanish ones. Possibly may have been marginally better off paying in euros with the Lloyds Amex but probably offset by the double rewards points for airline spend on the Amex Gold, paying in pounds.

  10. Michael says:

    Tickets finally booked, including some I intend to take 🙂

    As a BA silver (OneWorld Sapphire) member, on Iberia’s economy Hand baggage Only fares I’m quite certain I can take one piece of hold luggage for free (as it seems the benefit only doesn’t apply to BA HBO fares), please advise if anyone thinks otherwise.

    QQ – as BA silver (OneWorld Sapphire) is it possible to pre-select seats for free on Iberia as the site only recognises me as an Iberia Plus CLASICA member?

  11. And now the feeding frenzy stops. This is going to be fun to watch.

  12. David says:

    If you have a new account, don’t forget to check manage my booking to see if your Iberia number is there.

    Mine wasn’t! Now it is.

  13. David says:

    And it’s gone, at 23:00.

  14. Robman says:

    Well, i only managed to get six out of my possible 10 as I left it too late and the website crashed quite a few times in the last hour (10-11pm). Serves me right for procrastinating over the “if its too good to be true, I might not be true…” saying, but decided to bite the bullet anyway. Hopefully it will all work out for everyone. Thanks Rob for all your hard work on this offer.

    • I’ve managed to get 8 tickets. But couldn’t finish the last two by 11pm due the slow response of website. Anybody know if it is seriously ended by 11pm or it meant 24 June local time? I can see the page has gone from the main Iberia homepage but it is still accessible via Rob’s link.

      • Robman says:

        I feel that the main Iberia homepage is more a sign that the offer is over. The link may still work, but it won’t allow the points to post.

        • They should consider Spanish Canary which has same time zone as UK. I am hoping my tickets which went over UK 11pm to buy while the payment was processing,.

    • Crafty says:

      Ouch, finally made a first and only booking after much doubt about the veracity of this. Website was incredibly slow… booking confirmation email is stamped 23:00 exactly.

      This could get awkward…

  15. Arthur stevens says:

    I’ve been locked out my Iberia account but whilst booking still gave my Iberia account number so I didn’t book whilst logged in, will I get my points

    Thanks

  16. _nate says:

    Now that we have passed 11pm, is it possible to find out a) whether Iberia are counting 11pm or midnight UK time as the cut-off; b) if bookings which have a pending card status, made before the cut-off, will still count?

    As I understand it, there is a 24-hour fee-free refund policy on bookings, so there is still time to take corrective action concerning resulting from any clarification on Monday.

    • I called and got the answer as if booking confirmed (even not full paid) before deadline would still count. Saying that avios has got tech issue at the meantime

  17. RIccatti says:

    I just wish that people stop calling the airline and then broadly translate on here that an agent ABSOLUTELY POSITIVELY MOST SURELY affirmed so and so.

    Who do they expect to find on Sunday (or on the front-line CS number at all), an experienced IT engineer who understands in-depth on how Iberia Plus Avios platform works?

    • +1

      I work as an Infrastructure Engineer for a very large accomodation booking site, the front line CS have absolutely no idea how the back end works.

      The marketing team are more likely to know, and I’ve read the email from them, forwarded from Rob.

      • the real harry1 says:

        I would still recommend moving the points to BAEC the millisecond they land in your IB a/c! 🙂

        If it all goes pear-shaped, wife & I have the pleasant dilemma of booking a few getaways in Spain for next year by Dec 1st – flights & hotels should easily use up 180,000 Avios…

        Does anybody know if I can book flights for the kids on my IB a/c? (ie same as on BAEC yes/ no)

  18. mutley says:

    Still up om main Iberia site.

  19. LHFlyer says:

    Many years ago LH used to offer an overdraft for their Senator level frequent flyers. From memory it was more or less enough miles for a business class flight from Europe to anywhere in the world (including the South Pacific). I seem to recall that the number of miles was a relic from a very old coupon based system. At any rate there was no requirement to ‘pay it back’ when you dropped to FTL or back to Blue. Presumably the leakage on this was tolerable because this system stood for quite a number of years.

    Very foolishly when LH did a status match for BA status holders (just as the travel blogs/websites really stated to become serious ventures) they let all the newly minted BA Senators have the overdraft. All of a sudden they had a stack of people who had never credited a mile to LH redeeming long haul business class awards.

    LH’s solution for all this was to amend the Ts&Cs of Miles and More to provide that if you dropped down from Senator the miles had to be repaid (i.e. by being earnt) within 90 days (or similar) or LH could bill you for the miles (at some super high euro cents per mile). This applied across the board – namely to people who had both dropped down from Senator after earning it and who dropped down after being status matched. I seem to recall that LH did indeed start send invoices out. Whether they bothered to enforce the (GBP8k or so) invoices in a court in the member’s relevant jurisdiction is another matter. Although I would imagine that in this country there would be plenty of mercantile agencies who would be willing to do this charging LH only a percentage of recovery though.

    I would imagine that this will be one way for IB to attack the problem of thousands of IB+ accounts sitting at -90000 miles on 2 December.

  20. All of the bookings are linked to an account, simply they can work out which flight or route are most likely with lots of no show base on the analysis of someone booking behavior.

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