The madness continues …. the Iberia ‘90,000 Avios for £200’ deal ends tonight. Let’s do the maths.

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In all of the years I’ve been running Head for Points, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a deal get as much attention – globally – as the Iberia ‘90,000 Avios for booking 10 flights you don’t need to fly’ offer this weekend.

We’ve certainly had good Tesco Direct deals in the past which were more generous, such as 2,400 Avios (1,000 Clubcard points) for a £10 printer ink which you could resell on eBay.  These were glitches and got no attention outside the UK.  This deal is NOT a mistake – Iberia has been keen to tell us that! – and it is getting huge amounts of traction across the world.

You can book the Iberia deal here if you still want to jump in or find out more.

To summarise:

  • You get 9,000 Avios for every Iberia, Iberia Express or Air Nostrum flight you book by 11pm UK time on Sunday
  • You can earn up to 90,000 Avios per Iberia Plus account
  • You must book on iberia.com
  • Your booking must include your Iberia Plus frequent flyer number
  • Your 9,000 bonus Avios will arrive within 10 days
  • Iberia has confirmed that you do not have to take the flights – you won’t lose the Avios if you don’t
  • One-way flights work fine

So …. if you can find 10 cheap one-way flights on iberia.com for €25 each (Santander to or from Madrid still had availability at that price last night, obviously prices are lowest in Winter) then you are getting 90,000 Avios cheaply.

There are restrictions on using these Avios and I STRONGLY recommend reading my article from yesterday here before booking.

Iberia 90000 Avios

Let’s put the deal in context

I am guessing that between 50,000 and 100,000 seats will be booked under this promotion.  If you think that sounds high, remember that it only requires 5,000 to 10,000 people to book their full quota to hit that number.  You also need to remember that non-UK frequent flyer sites have been going crazy over this deal too – virtually all of them, I have to say, giving less focus to the potential downside risks than we have.

What would 100,000 booked seats mean?

Iberia Group carries 85,000 passengers per day, so this equates to over one full day of passenger numbers!

If you assume all of the bookings are for Q4 2018 and Q1 2019, as that is when fares are cheapest, it will add 0.6% to Iberia’s load factor for those two quarters (management bonuses all round!)

If Iberia pays 0.75p per Avios to Avios Group (which is my best guess) then it will have to hand over £6,750,000 to AGL

Assuming an average ticket price of £20, Iberia will therefore lose £4,750,000, albeit IAG overall sees no loss

The promotion seems to have wiped out every single Iberia seat priced at under €20 for the next 12 months, and a large proportion of those priced under €25

Iberia will see a disproportionately high number of ‘no shows’ over the next year which could have a longer term impact on planning as they will lose track of the ‘genuine’ no show rate which is how they decide how much they can oversell a flight

It is all very odd and, frankly, probably beyond anything that Iberia thought would happen.  There will be some interesting discussions in Madrid on Monday.  Iberia cannot realistically go back on the deal, however, given that it briefed various websites including Head for Points on Friday about how the offer worked.

You can book via the special offer page here if you still want to give it a go before 11pm tonight.  (I’m saying 11pm because that is midnight in Spain and I think Iberia will use that as the closing time.)

(Want to earn more Avios?  Click here to visit our home page for the latest articles on earning and spending your Avios points and click here to see how to earn more Avios from current offers and promotions.)

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Comments

  1. federico says:

    just spoke with them, in 2 days i will have the avios (9000 only as bonus)

    i will update you on thursday

  2. Check your accounts!
    Mine have just gone in. It’s an old account. I made all 10 bookings on the Sunday.

    • yeah mine just got in too! funny enough i have called few mins ago and i was told that they would have been in my account on thursday…

  3. still none; made bookings on Sunday

  4. update: still none; made bookings on Sunday

  5. Mark R says:

    Does anyone else have a login error and being asked to fill in a form and post it to an Iberia service centre to unlock my account?

    • New accounts set up over the weekend are getting that, you will need to send a passport scan to prove you are not a dog.

      • Thanks Rob, any chance you can delete my post or truncate my name to just my first name?

  6. My 90k have arrived. Has anyone tried to do anything with them – in particular transfer out to BAEC or Avios ?

  7. Just to add as a PS, that I just checked the account and the Avios were added as a single block of 90k, which suggests to me manual processing, otherwise they would surely come out as 9 separate credits (?). There is also a reference to special T&C applying ::-

    7/2/18 Bonus For Purchasing At Iberia.com – Special T&cs Apply Other services 90,000

  8. Claire says:

    Still nothing for me. 2 new (legit) accounts. Got blocked from both accounts, submitted both passport forms at the same time yesterday evening, mine unblocked an hour later, husband’s is still locked.
    How long is it taking everyone to get unblocked? Anybody been blocked and now received any points? The suspense is killing me!

    • Jimbob says:

      Sent my confirmation 48 hours ago, not heard anything back

    • In what way did you submit your form(s). I sent mine via there Service Centre email address. Should I have done another way?

  9. karen green says:

    I cannot transfer my points to Avios or BA executive club – tried on both Iberia and BA and got the same error code CMA-1104600435

  10. I can’t transfer avios *into* my IB+ account. On avios.com, I get “Sorry, the details of your accounts do not match, please contact us.” I have successfully moved avios both ways in the past. Any idea what is going on? Possibly my IB+ has my last name twice?

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