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British Airways goes aircraft shopping – what will replace its Boeing 777 fleet?

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Last week, Bloomberg reported (paywall) that British Airways and Iberia parent International Airlines Group (IAG) was in contact with Airbus and Boeing about further widebody aircraft purchases.

These days fleet decisions are made at the group level, with each airline having to make their case to IAG as to why they deserve investment in new aircraft.

In theory pooling orders should allow for better bulk discounts with manufacturers, although in reality IAG does not seem to make the same gigantic single-order purchases that are often announced by other airlines. A recent top-up order of six Boeing 787-10s for BA is indicative of this.

The current shopping spree, however, appears to be solely for BA, with Bloomberg reporting that “IAG is seeking to replace older 777s at its British Airways unit.”

This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. If anything, it’s surprising that it has taken this long.

With covid travel restrictions a thing of the past, airlines all over the world have been racking up orders for hundreds of aircraft as they try and replace the capacity they lost during covid. With BA’s Boeing 777-200ER fleet nearing an average age of 24 years (some are turning 27 soon) it was only a matter of time.

British Airways BA A350 in flight

BA’s fleet before and after covid

Prior to the pandemic, British Airways operated 135 long haul aircraft comprising:

  • 32 Boeing 747-400 (275-337 seats)
  • 45 Boeing 777-200ER
  • 12 Boeing 777-300ER
  • 12 Boeing 787-8 (214 seats)
  • 16 Boeing 787-9 (216 seats)
  • 1 787-10 (256 seats)
  • 12 A380 (469 seats)
  • 5 Airbus A350-1000 (331 seats)

Things changed dramatically during covid, with the retirement of all 32 Boeing 747s in July 2020. That singlehandedly wiped out 23% of its long haul fleet and a larger percentage of its overall capacity, given that the 747s were some of their largest aircraft by seat count.

British Airways 747

Since then, the long haul fleet has recovered slightly with the arrival of further A350s and 787-10s. Fundamentally, however, BA remains a smaller airline than it was in early 2020 with just 122 aircraft as of October 2023:

  • 43 Boeing 777-200ER
  • 16 Boeing 777-300ER
  • 12 Boeing 787-8 (214 seats)
  • 16 Boeing 787-9 (216 seats)
  • 7 787-10 (256 seats)
  • 12 A380 (469 seats)
  • 16 Airbus A350-1000 (331 seats)

Still to arrive are two more A350s, completing the fleet with 18 aircraft, as well as 11 more 787-10s. Also on order are 18 Boeing 777-9X, the next generation 777, now due to arrive no earlier than 2026.

Once all firm orders are delivered, it would leave the long haul fleet at 153 – just shy of 20 aircraft larger than in early 2020.

Of course, this does not take into account the increasing age of the Boeing 777 fleet. The earliest examples will be turning 30 in just a few years; the youngest in the fleet will be 21 by 2030.

Whilst BA has long had an older fleet (Virgin Atlantic’s average aircraft age is half that of BA, at around 7 years) it cannot fly these aircraft indefinitely. Maintenance checks will get increasingly expensive whilst fuel costs are only likely to rise.

Further on the horizon you’ll also find the retirement of the A380 fleet. The oldest of these turned ten this year, so they still likely have a good 10-15 years in them at least.

There’s no doubt then that BA needs some new aircraft, and preferably soonish.

What’s on the menu, British Airways?

For now, there is no indication as to which direction BA will go. It appears that discussions are ongoing with both Airbus and Boeing and engine manufacturers Rolls Royce and GE.

It seems the order is for at least 20 aircraft, according to Bloomberg.

BA already has a diverse long haul fleet so it is exceptionally unlikely that it will add a new aircraft type. This leaves the 787, 777X or A350 as the likeliest options.

In terms of capacity, BA is currently refurbishing its Boeing 777-200ER fleet with its new business class cabins. These aircraft feature between 235 and 272 seats overall; about half of them feature a First cabin with eight seats, hence the lower overall seat count.

Looking at seat counts, the most obvious replacement would be the 787-9 (216 seats), 787-10 (256 seats) or the A350-900.

Whilst BA doesn’t operate this variant of the A350 yet, it is part of the A350 family which BA already flies. In fact, the A350-900 may be the closest replacement in terms of capacity. Other airlines such as Singapore Airlines, Finnair and IAG sister airline Iberia feature between 250 and 350 seats on this aircraft in a three cabin configuration, so it would be a very close proxy to the existing 777-200ERs.

One other option, of course, is to go bigger. With Heathrow capacity constrained, the only way for BA to grow is to increase the size of its aircraft or operate more flights from other airports. The former is more attractive as it allows BA to retain the connectivity it has at Heathrow for transiting passengers.

In this case, the choice would be between the 787-10, A350-1000 and the 777-9X.

The 777-9X is arguably too big, although BA could opt for its smaller sibling, the 777-8X. The difference between the A350-1000 and the 787-10, at least in terms of capacity, is very small: the biggest differences here are the range and cargo capacity, with the A350-1000 capable of flying much further and/or carrying more cargo.

Range, however, is not a key metric for BA: the majority of its flights are less than 11 hours, which the 787-10 can handle perfectly fine. It would require a significant change in strategy for the A350’s range to come into play – not likely given BA’s increasing focus on North America in the past few decades.

There are other considerations, of course. Price and availability will also likely be a key factor. Boeing has recently signed a number of blockbuster deals with airlines including Riyadh Air and Air India for hundreds of 787s. It is struggling to ramp up production as quickly as Airbus has for the A350 following the pandemic, so availability may be constrained for some time.

At the same time Airbus, keen to win some widebody orders back from Boeing, may offer persuasive pricing to sweeten the deal.

Conclusion

This is all speculation, of course.

Whilst it seems clear that more aircraft will be needed, there are no concrete details on which way British Airways will walk. If anything, it will also be using this coverage as a negotiating tool to eke out improved deals from Airbus and Boeing.

Either way, the first aircraft from this potential order aren’t likely to arrive for another 3-4 years at the earliest. When it does, it will be a huge improvement for passengers with a lower cabin altitude across all models helping to reduce jet lag. All three aircraft also feature larger windows.

In the short term, we have the remaining A350 and 787-10 deliveries to look forward to, as well as the completion of the Boeing 777 Club Suite refurbishment which is likely to wrap up in the coming months. This will allow BA to get started on the 787-8s and A380s Club Suite refurbishments.

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Comments (114)

This article is closed to new comments. Feel free to ask your question in the HfP forums.

  • G says:
    17 Oct17 October 09:26

    Why didn’t BA retire some of the 777-200s rather than the 747s – given that the 747s had recently been refurbished.

    • Rhys says:
      17 Oct17 October 09:34

      Because the 747s were already in the process of being retired. Last one would have gone 2024/2025.

    • Bernard says:
      17 Oct17 October 10:22

      They did. The three oldest. Arguably those should have stayed around.

      But why hankering for the 747? I can’t find anyone who had to fly them regularly who misses them: the 747 became unreliable, outdated, dehydrating, hot, often with APU and other failures and some were riddled with bed bugs it was claimed. There was never enough carry on space in First and the ghastly layout of WTP behind F was a total f up too.

      • The real Swiss Tony says:
        17 Oct17 October 14:18

        The WT+ behind F only applied to the lo-J fleet which as I recall didn’t last long. I do however remember being in F and my wife making a comment to me about the WT+ placement which was overheard by the crew. She didn’t hold back in making her thoughts on the idea clear!

        Also, the upper deck, especially on BA, was an absolute delight. Every time I was up there, I was amazed by the tranquility of the boarding process, as passengers drifted up occasionally, got themselves settled and disappeared out of view. Compared to the inevitable queues downstairs, I found it ona par with F boarding and unmatched in J other than the one time I used the LX BBJ from EWR to ZRH.

        Got my first upgrade on a KLM 747-300 AMS-SIN 30 years ago onto the upper deck, too. I still miss the 747.

        • Bernard says:
          17 Oct17 October 14:52

          The low J became mid J which were around until 2020. So it was an ongoing problem.
          747 was ghastly to fly on in the BA set up and will BA’s slovenly approach to care, cleanliness and maintenance. Good riddance to it!

  • Chris W says:
    17 Oct17 October 09:52

    Do crew still hate working the A350 because of the lack of galley space?

  • Bernard says:
    17 Oct17 October 10:17

    Given the armchair CEO guessing here then I’ll throw an idea in the ring too.
    It won’t be Rolls powered since RR have don’t want to compete. With RR making hard to get engineers redundant, it feels as if exposure to more RR is a risk for BA too.
    That alone rules out more A350. So I’m going to throw a curve ball.

    It’ll be something like 40 787-8/9/10 and another 30 options – with Boeing agreeing to take back all the A350-1000 and remarket them. The A380 stays (a decision for 5-10 years time as BA flew 747-100 ‘coalers’ until almost 30 so lots of time to decide and air frame cycles matter and A380 had none during Covid)
    the 777X (if it ever arrives) replaces the A350s one for one. (Which also rids BA of the Cruz mistake aircraft).
    I’ll also predict that almost none of the new order has an F cabin fitted.

    So future long haul fleet:
    787-8/9/10
    77W/77X
    380

    With Gatwick eventually getting 787-8 from Heathrow?

    • Rhys says:
      17 Oct17 October 10:47

      Rolls have said they AREN’T making engineers redundant. Times this morning said it would be management roles, not engineering.

      BA may have a problem with RR on their 787s – who didn’t – but the reliability for the TrentXWB on the A350s is excellent and all airlines seem very pleased with it, and RR is far from the only engine supply to face issues. P&W are having major problems on their GTF whilst GE isn’t exactly problem free on the certification on the engines for the 777X.

      787-8 arguably too small for Gatwick. It’s good at Heathrow for launching new US routes. It’s not good at Gatwick which operates select long haul routes to popular holiday destinations.

      • Chris W says:
        17 Oct17 October 10:59

        Can’t they just transfer the old 777s down to Gatwick and keep running them until they can barely get off the ground? A 25 year old 777 with Club Suite is surely better than a 5 year old 787 with CW?

      • Bernard says:
        17 Oct17 October 11:18

        The issue with RR isn’t reliability it is COST.

        The GTF issue mainly affects narrow bodies so is not relevant to a long haul replacement debate (unless it’s a 321LR discussion).

        If you can, head off to the FT or research (from the better banks, not Barclays) and you’ll see that RR’s stubbornness on terms saw Airbus lose out on an A350 order vs 787-10 at IAG/BA. Engines can represent 20-30% of a ‘new plane’ cost so it IS a big deal when RR is price maximising.

        That won’t change. It’s 787s probably, with A350-1000 exited prematurely (fleet commonality, less RR cost exposure). 787 also has great cargo potential so that’s issue is not a decider.

        As for Gatwick, who knows? And who cares? It’s bucket and spade stuff and CFROI only justifies hand me downs. – remember some of most recent BA 777s are only 10-12 years old with low cycles on them.

        Also one thing you don’t raise.
        It’s not about age in years. It’s about airframe cycles, maintenance costs vs. Operating savings with a newer plane. (And some green cr-p signals as well). A lot of long haul fleet flew very little for two years so those younger RR powered 777s are ‘younger’ than you think.

        Finally, look at the United 767 fleet. If you want to focus on ‘years old’ some will be closer to 40 than 30 when they retire. 777 hand me downs from Heathrow look quite possible at Gatwick for the next two decades. But a mix with 787-8 for lighter routes at better frequencies is also quite feasible.

        For now it’s all arm chair guessing, but the fact remains you need to discuss air frame cycles and maintenance cycles not age in years.

  • jjoohhnn says:
    17 Oct17 October 10:57

    > A recent top-up order of six Boeing 787-10s for BA is indicative of this.

    Not especially. The price of these was already agreed in the original 787 order as BA was exercising options for these 6. That’s not the same as negotiating price on a new order. But indeed, BA isn’t looking to replace a huge fleet.

    Have you looked to see what other options they IAG available to them on their existing orders as that is likely to give the cheapest price for new planes?

    Maybe BA can get a deal on the A330-800neo since there are next to no orders for this plane!

    • Bernard says:
      17 Oct17 October 11:23

      Not necessarily.
      Top ups and option exercise can see terms renegotiated if both sides are willing.
      The switch in engine provider indicates that there is a high likelihood that a change in terms did occur.

  • occasionalranter says:
    17 Oct17 October 11:05

    (Sorry, O/T question, hope it’s ok as trying to set something up asap before setting off on travels) I have been rejected twice in last year or so for Amex Plat. High earnings, no debt, suspect rejected due to previous withdrawals of cash abroad on other credit cards. Anyway… if my adult not-living-at-home daughter applies for Amex Plat on current fabulous promotion, and nominates me as supplementary, what risk that will screw up her application, or that she will be accepted but asked to choose a different supp ? Thanks

  • occasionalranter says:
    17 Oct17 October 11:15

    Ignore above post, IT cock-up by me, some kind souls have answered in amex forum 🙂

  • Duncan says:
    17 Oct17 October 11:31

    A Plane Nigel would say that the 777s that were retired weren’t the ER models, but the very early A market non-ER version, which were usually seen on the US East Coast and Middle Eastern routes. The G-ZZZx pair.

  • Super Secret Stuff says:
    17 Oct17 October 13:33

    I think the a350 will win, because 10 abreast seating is now possible in economy on the newer a350s due to minor improvements increasing the cabin space. See French bee for details in practice.

    This is a major threat for BA, as French bee has shown, 10 abreast seating on an a350 allows you to be very originals, so a major threat if Norwegian (sorry Norse), got hold of them

    • Super Secret Stuff says:
      17 Oct17 October 13:33

      Very profitable not originals lol

    • Bernard says:
      17 Oct17 October 14:27

      French Bee has no ex UK route rights.
      There’s no sign Delta or Virgin will go 10 across so to describe a ‘major threat’ seems a little too much?
      BA will focus on, and IAG will sign off on, the investment that generates the best overall return. That itself is a function of revenue potential and operating and acquisition cost of the aircraft. That’s why Aer Lingus kept A330s and relinquished A350 orders, for example.

      • Super Secret Stuff says:
        17 Oct17 October 14:33

        And a 10% revenue boost for economy isn’t a worthwhile investment?

        My point was not French Bee are coming. It’s that they’ve already done it, who is next? 32 inch of legroom and still hitting the max exit limit for an aircraft is definitely a unique advantage to any airlines Bolton line

        • Bernard says:
          17 Oct17 October 14:49

          10% more revenue from the lowest yield seats, if you fill them, isn’t much use if the plane costs more. And that’s the RR problem for Airbus right now.
          So you have to look at everything. And in the round, RR are making the A350 uncompetitive.

          • Rob says:
            17 Oct17 October 15:00

            The ‘lowest yield’ bit is what people always forget.

            Take the extra row of seats added into short haul aircraft. Simple economics says that you fill those seats at the lowest yield, which could be as little as £29 each way – so you’re adding £180 of revenue.

            In return, everyone from row 13 to the back gets reduced legroom and an ironing board-style seat. It’s easy to see how you can lose £180 of revenue from one high yielding passenger because of the trade off you made to attract six lowest yield passengers.

            There is probably a similar discussion around lounges. Squeeze in 5 more Priority Pass people at £10 each but you lose 1 person who would pay the full cash rate because the lounge is now too full and not relaxing.

          • Tariq says:
            17 Oct17 October 15:37

            Yes, but if you take the front four rows of Y out and put higher yield seats in there then you are taking the benefit that 10-across Y provides.

            For the record I agree with you, I think 10-across in BA is unlikely. Just saying that it doesn’t have to mean net more Y seats.

          • Super Secret Stuff says:
            17 Oct17 October 16:41

            Agree it doesn’t have to mean more Y seats, but ultimately it means you can either reduce the space of the economy cabin or add more seats into it or keep the passenger count the same but with more leg room through removing every 9th row.

            BA would probably opt for adding premium cabin options, but the choice is there. The thing about 10 across seating is it means you can give more legroom to passengers and still not hit max limit for the a 350. I think most people would prefer more leg room over a tiny bit of width.

            Those who don’t can upgrade to premium economy, which would have a more compelling selling point to more people. Most people who fly economy, I think at least, only fly once or twice a year so probably wouldn’t notice

          • pogonation says:
            18 Oct18 October 10:03

            Keep the same number of Y seats and assuming a 20 row cabin you have moved economy back by 2 rows and this allowing an additional row of J with lets say average revenue of £1000 per seat = £4000 additional revenue.

            As Rob points out however this could come at the cost of putting off high yield Y pax (due to more cramped seating) who can choose which airline to go with and subsequently losing 4-6 full fare Y pax.. Now the airline is back to square one in terms of revenue albeit with unhappy Y pax and bad PR (which in turn could lead to even more lost revenue).

        • Max says:
          17 Oct17 October 21:23

          Even more interesting if some airline does go for 10-abreast Economy and 9-abreast Premium Economy in the A350 NPS.

          • ADS says:
            18 Oct18 October 12:40

            I actively try and avoid 10 abreast B777s … after being squashed (in the window seat) on a QR B777 by a large man in the middle seat

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