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Marriott has — for me — given good value redemptions. You can flexibly transfer again to an airline (at a modest loss) or merge balances across Marriott accounts, so there is no risk of the stash getting orphaned. There is, of course, a risk of an unfavourable scheme change.
Avios to Nectar may come with less risk of devaluation of the scheme, however, it also comes with the risk that the Nectar are spent on “essentials”. If you take the Nectar path, I’d be sure to top up the holiday savings account with the equivalent value of the Nectar points at the point of transfer.
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