BREAKING: British Airways suspends all flights to China

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• Paul Pogba says:

  29 Jan29 January 08:02

  Shoestring will be outraged.

  • Shoestring says:

    29 Jan29 January 08:40

    Not at BA, they didn’t have a choice.

    https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice ? – hmmm

    • Shoestring says:

      29 Jan29 January 12:57

      now you *are* scaremongering and may wish to retract?

      the author has just guessed at infection increase & applied a factor of 48.5, extracting deaths from that, ie supposing 1 in 48.5 people who get pussycat virus will die

      with SARS etc the containment strategy was effective; as it is with (say) ebola
      [Containment strategies employed during the recent SARS epidemic included case and contact management, infection control in hospitals and other facilities, community-wide temperature screening, mask use, isolation and quarantine, and the monitoring of travelers and response at national borders]

    • joe says:

      29 Jan29 January 13:39

      I will bet you anything – anything, that that is a wild overestimation.

      • joe says:

        29 Jan29 January 13:50

        Its just presuming a 50% increase in deaths and cases each day. If that were to be the case, the whole world would be dead by around 13 March if I can remember my A level maths.

        1.178144 (Million) times 1.5^x = 7000 (million – population of the world)

        1.5^x = 7000/1.178144

        x log 1.5 = log [7000/1.178144]

        x = log [7000/1.178144] / log 1.5

        x = 21.4 (days after 21 February)

        End of the world equals around 21 days after 21 February = 13 March.

        Been nice knowing you all (apologies for the inevitable maths error)!

      • Paul Pogba says:

        29 Jan29 January 14:11

        100 Avios says its right.

      • EwanG says:

        29 Jan29 January 16:37

        Joe, can you run the numbers to work out the probability that Curve will bring back Amex support before the end of the world on 13 March?

      • Russ says:

        29 Jan29 January 17:24

        Joe, when you did your A Level math did they not do the Bell curve thingy 🙂

        I’m more worried we’re going to end up with HFP articles headed: Where is the best place to spend your hotel points by 13th March in Blackpool??

    • maccymac says:

      29 Jan29 January 15:11

      I guess we’ll know soon enough… I presume these numbers are if nothing in terms of countermeasures are done? Whats the source?

      • Paul Pogba says:

        29 Jan29 January 17:08

        Its a very simplistic model but everyday the numbers have come out worse. There will come a point when lab and healthcare capacity limits are reached in China and a vaccine is around 9-18 months away so any improvement in care will be weighed against the ability to deliver it.

        The sanguine should print out a copy, update the numbers everyday and then tell the rest of us how they keep smiling 🙂

    • TGLoyalty says:

      29 Jan29 January 15:18

      ridiculous.

      • Calz says:

        29 Jan29 January 18:01

        May have Lol’d at the curve amex support comment

    • Cat says:

      30 Jan30 January 11:16

      This model doesn’t appear to take any account the incubation period of up to 14 days. 14 days ago, international airports weren’t even screening passengers arriving from Wuhan – that started at airports around the world between 17th and 22nd Jan. The effect of screening at airports, travel restrictions, travel bans, and increasingly strict quarantine measures obviously won’t not show up in declining rates of viral transmission for a few days (due to the incubation period).
      Time will tell.

• Oh! Matron! says:

  29 Jan29 January 08:03

  Sucks if you’re an Aussie:

  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/29/australian-coronavirus-evacuees-to-be-quarantined-on-christmas-island

• Yorkieflyer says:

  29 Jan29 January 08:37

  The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few

• Publius says:

  29 Jan29 January 08:47

  What is the collective wisdom about Hong Kong flights being affected soon?

  • Rob says:

    29 Jan29 January 08:54

    HK makes more money …

  • Russ says:

    29 Jan29 January 13:00

    It’s quite interesting how HK is now being treated as a separate country from China!

    • Mark says:

      29 Jan29 January 13:43

      Which it effectively is. A border separating it from the Chinese mainland, its own laws, government, currency etc. I realise it is ultimately controlled by the Chinese government, however it would be much harder to cut off Hong Kong from the rest of world given it’s importance as a major travel and business hub.

      No doubt the unrest in HK is on the minds of the decision makers as well – the last thing the HK or Chinese governments will want now is for the virus to take hold in HK as a result of a refusal to control migration from mainland China, result in mortality similar to or higher than SARs and the residents of HK blaming the Chinese government.

• Waddle says:

  29 Jan29 January 08:50

  Statement from BA clarifies suspension is for 2 days only “while we assess the situation”. Source: BA spokesperson to the news organisation I work for.

  • Alan says:

    29 Jan29 January 09:33

    Suspect it’ll last longer than that given the FCO advice…

• Aston100 says:

  29 Jan29 January 09:14

  Are there still people in denial about the potential impact of this?

  • Peter K says:

    29 Jan29 January 09:22

    Reading comments on this site, yes.

    • Shoestring says:

      29 Jan29 January 09:29

      are there still people in denial that deaths so far = under 2 days’ UK deaths total for a disease like pneumonia (80 deaths / day)

      • Beebop says:

        29 Jan29 January 09:38

        Hence the word “potential” from the OP.

      • Riccatti says:

        29 Jan29 January 10:48

        Pneumonia is NOT a specific disease. It is an umbrella term for many kinds of infection.

      • Callum says:

        29 Jan29 January 21:14

        Stop comparing this to pneumonia.

        While I accept that a tiny number of people are scaremongering, your arguments likewise show a complete lack of understanding.

        While unsurprising, the sheer amount of arrogance that’s required to think that you know better than the entire field of global experts because you did a few Google searches and made some nonsensical comparisons is staggering.

  • TGLoyalty says:

    29 Jan29 January 09:23

    Denial of what?

    Commercial Airline cancels flights following government advice against travel and most probably mass cancellations leaving no one to fly. Makes perfect sense.

• Don says:

  29 Jan29 January 09:36

  Called AMEX Platinum insurance and told we aren’t insured for this even The Foreign Office has warning not to travel.

  • TGLoyalty says:

    29 Jan29 January 09:38

    When is your holiday? If it’s in a few months then that could be not covered yet. Would contact the airline and hotels first to see if they will refund. Insurance should be last resort.

    • Don says:

      29 Jan29 January 09:56

      Trip is for March and April. Most Flights and hotels were booked with points so shouldn’t be problem get most back. Also booked two nights at Heathrow for pre/post trip which are nonrefundable, hotel has rejected refund.

      • TGLoyalty says:

        29 Jan29 January 11:45

        Cancel and claim any fees and non-refundable elements from AMEX?

        I’m sure they would be reasonable

  • Steve says:

    29 Jan29 January 09:42

    Interesting. Amex is always held out as the panacea for insurance. Looks like the suck just as much as every other insurance provider.

    • Don says:

      29 Jan29 January 09:59

      Their excuse was The Foreign Office only advice you not go but hasn’t stop you go. Unbelievable!

      • memesweeper says:

        29 Jan29 January 10:06

        That’s scandalous if true.

        • BlueHorizonuk says:

          29 Jan29 January 10:18

          I believe Amex changed insurers last year so things have changed and I have suspicions they are not as good as before.

        • Don says:

          29 Jan29 January 10:24

          Over the call even been told to check if other third party insurance will cover it, if so they suggest to get one now.

        • Alex W says:

          29 Jan29 January 10:26

          Amex can shove the £600 fee up their ass. Is there any reason to get Platinum any more?

    • rams1981 says:

      29 Jan29 January 10:26

      I’ve never had any use for the plat insurance which is why I’m thinking of cancelling and just getting gold which has better rewards rate including the bonus. It’s pathetic the plat card doesn’t have a spend bonus.

    • Lady London says:

      29 Jan29 January 16:49

      Since it went to Axa what did you expect. I won’t take any policy underwritten by Axa.

  • the_real_a says:

    29 Jan29 January 10:38

    Did you speak to the underwriting team? The AXA/Chub customer service line really has no clue… If they wont transfer you then get them to ask the underwriter whilst you are on the line. I had the same nonsense on an unrelated issue last year.

    • Don says:

      29 Jan29 January 11:00

      I didn’t speak to the underwriting team now worth call them again. Thanks!

      • Rob says:

        29 Jan29 January 12:20

        I have pulled out the documents. AXA is correct.

        Amex won’t pay up if you travel, and they won’t pay up if you don’t.

        There is a clause which says ‘Amex won’t pay if the Foreign Office advises against travel’ but there is no mirror clause allowing you to cancel in the same circumstances. I pulled up another policy I hold and that one does specifically give me the right to cancel.

        • Riccatti says:

          29 Jan29 January 12:42

          If you visited a GP during a previous year, say with a cold, the same GP will likely to issue note advising specifically you not to travel. That will be a reason for cancellation.

        • Mark says:

          29 Jan29 January 16:44

          We’re in a similar situation with our policy through my work flexible benefits scheme. It explicitly excludes epidemics and pandemics under Cancellation.

          So we can only hope that if the FCO issues advice against non-essential travel to HKG in the next 3 days, that Lufthansa will refund the flights at least (which they are not currently for HKG, only mainland China).

  • Rob says:

    29 Jan29 January 10:43

    Not insured in what sense? That they won’t pay for cancellation? Once the Foreign Office says ‘all but non-essential travel should be cancelled’ that is normally enough. If they are saying that they won’t pay if you go and catch it then that is fair enough.

    • Anna says:

      29 Jan29 January 12:33

      What is the position if the OP’s fights are cancelled and he actually CAN’T travel, regardless of what the FO says?

      • Rob says:

        29 Jan29 January 12:37

        Good point. BA will offer to reroute you to HK though, from where I suppose Axa will claim you can make your own way into China.

    • Riccatti says:

      29 Jan29 January 12:39

      OP holiday March-April might be too early to cancel.

      Insurance company might take a view that during nearly two-month period FCO might lift the restriction.

• Chris says:

  29 Jan29 January 10:35

  Virgin just announced they are going to continue flying to Shanghai.

  I’ve got 1 of the golden ticket flights booked for 22 Feb which would rather not refund obviously and as I’m only going to be in Shanghai for less than 24 hours and then flying off to Boracay might just take the risk. Travel insurance said they woulds not cover me for time in Shanghai or any illness as a result of time in Shanghai but would cover me as normal in Philippines. They also said they wouldn’t cover me for Air Asia flights booked from Shanghai to Boracay if my flight gets cancelled by Virgin or government advice not tot travel remains the same.

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