Moody’s downgrades IAG and BA debt as Willie Walsh declares he likes state aid

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• ChrisW says:

  9 Sep9 September 09:42

  If airlines had a tough summer this year they’re going to have a horrendous winter. Some UK travellers chanced a low risk summer break to Europe this year after so many months of lockdown.

  As the northern winter sets in, apart from ski trips, people need to travel a lot further to have a proper holiday (Dubai, Sth Africa, SE Asia, Caribbean etc). I expect most travellers won’t be comfortable travelling longhaul this winter even if they’re allowed into their destination.

  Should something go wrong in the Algarve (like a sudden quarantine change) it’s relatively easy to get home – you could just drive if worse comes to worst. If you’re in, say, St Lucia, it’s not nearly as easy or stress free.

  I’m interested to see if people travel this winter, and where. It’s a very different situation to summer.

  • Mike P says:

    9 Sep9 September 10:16

    A good summary of the situation. I, like a fair number of people, took the chance on a week away this summer and it was fine. I usually to the Far East over Xmas and New Year but won’t be chancing that this year.

    When I couple this with a complete lack of work travel in what would normally be a very busy period for me, I can’t see myself getting on a plane again until next spring.

  • ken says:

    9 Sep9 September 10:48

    Skiing season will be disasterous for the resorts.
    Business is based on cramming people into planes, transfers, hire shops, lifts, cafes, bars and restaurants.

    All with nice cold air keeping the virus alive.

    • ChrisW says:

      9 Sep9 September 11:33

      Ski season does have some disadvantages like the cold weather though social distancing can be done outside at least – skis are natural distancers!

      It’s also easy to avoid transmission given people wear gloves and face coverings normally in the snow. I would have no issues sitting next to someone on a chairlift if we both wore ski gloves and ski masks.

      • Anna says:

        9 Sep9 September 13:17

        Wasn’t it skiing holidays that started all this?!

        • tony says:

          9 Sep9 September 13:51

          Not sure they started it but I think it’s accepted they were a huge accelerator. However it’s the sweaty Apres-ski and packed mountain restaurants where presumably the real risk lies, and to a lesser extent the crowded boot room & ski hire shops. Then you have the fact people inevitably pick up coughs & colds, so there will be someone spluttering their way back on the transfer and plane.

          You can remove some of these risks but sensibly managing them all means self catering and driving there & back with all your own kit. I think it’ll be a shocker of a season. 🙁

        • memesweeper says:

          9 Sep9 September 14:01

          … and don’t forget the chalets. Lots of people like this kind of accommodation for a week, and it’s almost perfect for transmission.

        • Lady London says:

          9 Sep9 September 14:03

          Hum…. that was the apres-ski where it got transmitted :-). Not the actual skiing.

        • TGLoyalty says:

          9 Sep9 September 15:37

          🙂 surely it was Apres Ski lol

      • Alex M says:

        9 Sep9 September 14:53

        How exactly do gloves help to stop the spread?…

  • marcw says:

    9 Sep9 September 13:54

    You could go/visit the Canary Islands. But this is not a market BA is strong – Jet2, Ryanair, easyJet, wizzair… are in a much better position.

  • Lady London says:

    10 Sep10 September 08:35

    Got a feeling a lot of airlines will close almost everythiing for winter. Except possibly around Christmas/New Year and possibly February/school hols.

    So more staff on extendee leave of absence (if they’re lucky) and many more redundant.

    • Rob says:

      10 Sep10 September 09:17

      Finnair is cutting back to 100 (not a typo) cabin crew.

• Charles Rodgers says:

  9 Sep9 September 10:40

  Airlines & airports better implement their own rapid Covid testing systems soon.

  • Rhys says:

    9 Sep9 September 10:46

    The problem is that it would require government regulation to make work, and the UK government has been reticent until now. Heathrow has been pushing hard to make it happen, for example.

    • TGLoyalty says:

      9 Sep9 September 15:50

      That sample is so small I doubt it is statistically accurate.

      In July there were c900k movements from let’s assume 50% are arrivals and 80% of them stay in the UK as transit to other countries will be right down.

      So 360k people entering the UK if 7% had Covid that’s 25k+ positive cases for July. The UK only had c20k in the official figures. Do you really think 7% of passengers were COVID positive? Testing isn’t a silver bullet but it’s a better one than the sledgehammers being used at the moment.

      • TGLoyalty says:

        9 Sep9 September 15:51

        Rouge “from” in that. Meant to say 900k movements @ LHR

      • Charlieface says:

        9 Sep9 September 16:02

        No, you’re doing the maths wrong.
        7% of people who are ACTUALLY positive, at current rates about 1%, so 0.07% of 900k would be picked up = 630 and 0.0093% = 8370 who are not picked up.
        Certainly possible a result.
        Although testing 900k people of whom 891k are actually negative, means false positives of around 1% = 8910, so far more false positives than real positives.

        • TGLoyalty says:

          9 Sep9 September 20:47

          You’re right I linked the two scenarios when what he actually said wasn’t linked statistically.

          1 in 8 having a false positive is 12.5%. I would like to see the data behind the 7% Of Positive being caught and The 93% getting away.

          You could always just quarantine the planes where anyone onboard tests positive.

      • Charlieface says:

        9 Sep9 September 16:03

        But I agree it’s a tiny sample

• marcw says:

  9 Sep9 September 10:42

  The situation at IB and VY is following: staff are on special COVID furlough program, which in the tourism and aviation sector is likely to be extended indefinitely. VY is doing better in terms of operations, as they don’t rely heavily on transfer passengers.
  IB is currently in negotiations with UX and the Spanish Government how to finish UX’s purchase. it looks like as IB will purchase UX via a subsidise from the Spanish Government, to avoid UX failing for bankruptcy.

• Lady London says:

  9 Sep9 September 14:07

  Willie Walsh never opens his mouth for nothing.
  Everything said by someone in his level of position, is calculated.

  The fact that it’s being said by Walsh when he has technically left, is BA’s way of saying it without having to acknowledge it’s BA saying it.

  I’m all for supporting BA with state aid, if they want it. Too much industrial destruction going on of valid industries.

  If anyone’s left standing at the end of this, and I’m sure airlines will be, BA is nearly at the top of my list for surviving and thriving after this.

  • Lady London says:

    9 Sep9 September 14:11

    FWIW I think Willie Walsh did an excellent job for BA and particularly steering them through Covid as it is so far.

    Luis Gallego’s cv is impressive.

    • Rob says:

      9 Sep9 September 14:41

      What has been done to Iberia since BA bought it is nothing short of miraculous.

      Except the website 🙂

• Paul says:

  9 Sep9 September 15:37

  BA isn’t exactly helping its self.

  LHR GLA 5 Feb Fare £31
  GLA LHR 7 Feb Fare £117 on every flight
  RFS available
  Website says £31 fares available but you cant book.
  Amazing how their web site only ever makes mistakes in their favour.

  • Nick says:

    9 Sep9 September 15:47

    Because no one on HfP has ever bought an error fare at ridiculously low cost?!

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